Chonburi FC 3-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 51%, yet in-form Sukhothai FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Sukhothai FC travel to Chonburi UTA Stadium to take on Chonburi FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Chonburi FC stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Sukhothai FC have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sukhothai FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Sukhothai FC's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Chonburi FC's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Chonburi FC have won 0, Sukhothai FC 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2023, ended Chonburi FC 2–3 Sukhothai FC — a Sukhothai FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 56% versus Sukhothai FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 52% | Sukhothai FC 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.72 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.942 / defence 1.024 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.235. Data: built from Chonburi FC's last 48 games and Sukhothai FC's last 48.

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 51% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.96 | Draw 3.73 | Sukhothai FC 4.50. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sukhothai FC (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chonburi FC's last 10 home games and Sukhothai FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chonburi FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Sukhothai FC 60% (last 10 away games).

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