Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 May 2027 at 11:00 UTC.

Current Form

Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Lamphun Warrior away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Form favours the hosts. Ratchaburi's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Lamphun Warrior's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Ratchaburi, who have won 4 of the last 8 meetings against Lamphun Warrior — a 3D 1W return for the visitors.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Ratchaburi winning.

The historical record gives Ratchaburi a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 60% and Lamphun Warrior 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 57% | Lamphun Warrior 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.49 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.385 / defence 0.869 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.163 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Ratchaburi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lamphun Warrior's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Ratchaburi games / 37 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 37% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 36%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Lamphun Warrior 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Lamphun Warrior 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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