Port FC 3-0 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Chonburi FC travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 September 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port FC have posted 4W 4D 2L at PAT Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have recorded 0W 2D 2L from 4 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Port FC have won 3, Chonburi FC 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Port FC trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Chonburi FC trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 50% versus Chonburi FC 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Port FC 25% | Chonburi FC 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.65 xG and Chonburi FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.077 / defence 0.941 | Chonburi FC attack 0.825 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.215. Data: 34 Port FC games / 4 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 52% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Chonburi FC 5.00. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 80% | Chonburi FC 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 Sep 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 52% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Port FC 1.65 / Chonburi FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.077 / def 0.941 | Chonburi FC attack 0.825 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Port FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Chonburi FC xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Port FC vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 19 September 2025 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Port FC 3 - 0 Chonburi FC.
Where is Port FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Port FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 52% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Port FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chonburi FC?
Record (6 meetings): Port FC 3W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 3W.
What form are Port FC and Chonburi FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Chonburi FC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.59
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.60
0.94
Chonburi FC xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
4%
26.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Port FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Port FC and 0.94 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chonburi FC sit at 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC in 25%.
Last 4 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Port FC
0
Draws
4
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Chonburi FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 3-2 Port FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Chonburi FC tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 50%, Chonburi FC 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Port FC and 25% for Chonburi FC.
On the defensive side: Port FC have failed to score in 50% of games; Chonburi FC in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Port FC's recent matches and 25% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Port FC's recent games and 25% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Chonburi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Chonburi FC 3-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.65 xG and Chonburi FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chonburi FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Chonburi FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 52% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 20%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 25%, Chonburi FC 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Port FC scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Chonburi FC shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.