Port FC 1-3 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Port FC welcome Buriram United to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 November 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC at PAT Stadium this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Buriram United — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Buriram United's 2.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Port FC's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Port FC, 2 for Buriram United and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Buriram United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 56% versus Buriram United 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 49% | Buriram United 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.33 xG and Buriram United 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.209 / defence 0.922 | Buriram United attack 1.361 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.192. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.361 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Port FC games / 43 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 33% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 40%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Buriram United 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 60% | Buriram United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 33% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Port FC 1.33 / Buriram United 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.209 / def 0.922 | Buriram United attack 1.361 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Buriram United xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Port FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Buriram United?
Port FC 1 - 3 Buriram United.
Where is Port FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Buriram United part of?
Port FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 33% chance of winning, Buriram United a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Port FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Buriram United?
Record (2 meetings): Port FC 0W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 2W.
What form are Port FC and Buriram United in?
Port FC (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Buriram United (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.21) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
33%
3.03
27%
3.73
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.83
1.50
Buriram United xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
7%
13.55
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Port FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Port FC and 1.50 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC's recent record stands at 16W 13D 14L from 43 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United, meanwhile, have gone 29W 8D 6L across 43 games — 2.21 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Port FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 12W 5D 4L from 21 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Buriram United's away record stands at 14W 3D 4L across 21 trips, a 2.14 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 1.93 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Buriram United in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 16W 13D 14L in their last 43 games (1.42 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 29W 8D 6L in their last 43 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.95 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Port FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Buriram United in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
2
Draws
4
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Buriram United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Port FC 3-1 Buriram United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Buriram United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 43%, Buriram United 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Port FC) and 48% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Buriram United in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Port FC's recent matches and 38% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Port FC's recent games and 48% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Port FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Port FC 1-3 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.33 xG and Buriram United 1.50 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Buriram United outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.92 against Buriram United attack 1.36 / defence 0.84, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 33% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 40%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 49%, Buriram United 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Buriram United's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.42. Form held, and they took the win. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.