Police Tero 1-1 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Nakhon Pathom at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Police Tero face Nakhon Pathom.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Police Tero welcome Nakhon Pathom to Boonyachinda Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 2 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Police Tero have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Police Tero's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Nakhon Pathom — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Nakhon Pathom's away record over their last 9 away games: 2W 3D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Police Tero) versus 1.10 (Nakhon Pathom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams have scored in at least 78% of each side's games (from Police Tero's last 10 home games and Nakhon Pathom's last 9 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Police Tero have won 1, Nakhon Pathom 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Police Tero 2–1 Nakhon Pathom — a Police Tero win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Police Tero in-play tendencies (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

Nakhon Pathom in-play tendencies (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Police Tero 84% and Nakhon Pathom 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Police Tero 79% | Nakhon Pathom 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Police Tero surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Nakhon Pathom have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.42 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.784 / defence 1.489 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.932 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.202. Police Tero's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.42. Police Tero's defence rating of 1.489 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nakhon Pathom's projected output up. Data: built from Police Tero's last 49 games and Nakhon Pathom's last 19.

Result probabilities: Police Tero 31% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Pathom 42%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 3.22 | Draw 3.68 | Nakhon Pathom 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.42 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Nakhon Pathom are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Police Tero's last 10 home games and Nakhon Pathom's last 9 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Police Tero 80% (last 10 home games) | Nakhon Pathom 78% (last 9 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights