Muangthong United 2-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Muangthong United at 52% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Muangthong United vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Muangthong United host Prachuap at Thunder Dome Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 3 March 2024 at 10:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Muangthong United — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Muangthong United's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Prachuap have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Prachuap have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Muangthong United at 1.20 PPG versus Prachuap's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Muangthong United's last 10 home games and Prachuap's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Muangthong United: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Prachuap, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Muangthong United 3–1 Prachuap — a Muangthong United win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Muangthong United and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Muangthong United trading profile (last 49 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Prachuap trading profile (last 49 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Muangthong United 61% and Prachuap 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 61% | Prachuap 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.75 xG and Prachuap 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.077 / defence 1.007 | Prachuap attack 0.859 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.193. Data: built from Muangthong United's last 49 games and Prachuap's last 49.
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 52% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 20%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 1.92 | Draw 3.62 | Prachuap 4.94. Muangthong United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Muangthong United at 52% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Muangthong United 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Muangthong United's last 10 home games and Prachuap's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Muangthong United 70% (last 10 home games) | Prachuap 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 52% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Muangthong United 1.75 / Prachuap 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.077 / def 1.007 | Prachuap attack 0.859 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Prachuap xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Muangthong United vs Prachuap FAQs
What time does Muangthong United vs Prachuap kick off?
Muangthong United vs Prachuap kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Muangthong United 2 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Muangthong United vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Prachuap part of?
Muangthong United vs Prachuap is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 20) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 52% chance of winning, Prachuap a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Muangthong United and Prachuap will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Muangthong United vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Muangthong United's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Muangthong United's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Muangthong United's last 49 games and Prachuap's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
52%
1.92
28%
3.62
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.78
1.03
Prachuap xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
4%
28.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Muangthong United vs Prachuap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.03 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Muangthong United have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 20W 12D 17L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Prachuap's form line: 12W 15D 22L from 49 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Muangthong United are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Muangthong United have posted 1.77 PPG from their last 22 home games (11W 6D 5L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 2W 8D 12L from their last 22 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Muangthong United are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.31 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Prachuap in 67%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
Muangthong United (Home) vs Prachuap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Muangthong United
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Muangthong United vs Prachuap Form FAQs
What form are Muangthong United and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 20W 12D 17L in their last 49 games (1.47 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 12W 15D 22L in their last 49 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Prachuap away?
Muangthong United's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 1.77 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Prachuap in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Prachuap have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Oct 2022, when Muangthong United won Muangthong United 5-0 Prachuap.
Muangthong United's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Muangthong United
1
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Muangthong United vs Prachuap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Prachuap?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Muangthong United have won 5, Prachuap have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Prachuap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Prachuap 2-1 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Prachuap?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 54%, Prachuap 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Muangthong United) and 50% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Prachuap in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Muangthong United vs Prachuap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Muangthong United and Prachuap matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Muangthong United's games and 68% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Muangthong United and Prachuap matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Muangthong United's recent games and 50% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Muangthong United and Prachuap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Muangthong United's recent matches and 73% of Prachuap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Muangthong United edge out Prachuap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Prachuap 2-1 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.75 xG and Prachuap 1.03 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Prachuap attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 52% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 20%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 61%, Prachuap 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (49 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Prachuap's trading profile (49 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.