Pattani vs Uthai Thani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattani vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Uthai Thani make the trip to Rainbow Stadium to face Pattani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 February 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pattani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Pattani against 0.90 for Uthai Thani. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.98 xG and Uthai Thani 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.712 / defence 0.976 | Uthai Thani attack 1.252 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Pattani's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Uthai Thani have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 1 Pattani games / 31 Uthai Thani games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pattani 27% | Draw 29% | Uthai Thani 44%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Uthai Thani 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 27% | Draw 29% | Uthai Thani 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Pattani 0.98 / Uthai Thani 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.712 / def 0.976 | Uthai Thani attack 1.252 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Uthai Thani xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Pattani vs Uthai Thani is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Uthai Thani part of?
Pattani vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 27% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pattani and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Uthai Thani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Uthai Thani in?
Pattani (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pattani's attack at 0.71x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (1.25x) against Pattani's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
27%
3.72
29%
3.45
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.31
1.33
Uthai Thani xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
7%
14.10
17%
6.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.2 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Pattani and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Pattani and 1.33 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pattani come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Uthai Thani carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Pattani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pattani are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 4.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Uthai Thani's attacking output running into Pattani's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Pattani have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Uthai Thani in 100%.
Defensively: Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Pattani or Uthai Thani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Uthai Thani in 0%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Pattani's recent matches and 100% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Pattani's recent games and 100% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattani and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.