Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Khon Kaen United make the trip to Pitchaya Stadium to face Nong Bua Pitchaya in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pitchaya Stadium, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Khon Kaen United have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, 1.70 for Khon Kaen United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nong Bua Pitchaya lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Khon Kaen United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Nong Bua Pitchaya — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Khon Kaen United — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 59% versus Khon Kaen United 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 41% | Khon Kaen United 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.33 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.014 / defence 0.970 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.857 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 1.091. Khon Kaen United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Nong Bua Pitchaya's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 22 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 46% | Draw 28% | Khon Kaen United 25%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Khon Kaen United 4.00. Nong Bua Pitchaya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 50% | Khon Kaen United 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 46% | Draw 28% | Khon Kaen United 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.33 / Khon Kaen United 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.014 / def 0.970 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.857 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.010 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Khon Kaen United xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1 - 0 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 46% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United?
Record (1 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 0 | Khon Kaen United 1W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nong Bua Pitchaya's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Khon Kaen United's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Khon Kaen United's attack (0.86x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.51
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.24
0.91
Khon Kaen United xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0.91 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Nong Bua Pitchaya have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 8W 7D 7L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khon Kaen United's form line: 9W 4D 9L from 22 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Nong Bua Pitchaya against 1.41 for Khon Kaen United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nong Bua Pitchaya have posted 2.20 PPG from 10 outings (7W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Khon Kaen United have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 1.05 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 8W 7D 7L in their last 22 games (1.41 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 9W 4D 9L in their last 22 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 2.20 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Nong Bua Pitchaya have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nong Bua Pitchaya won 6-1 on 3 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Khon Kaen United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1
Draws
2
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 3, Khon Kaen United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Khon Kaen United 0-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 50%, Khon Kaen United 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 50% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Khon Kaen United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 40% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 50% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nong Bua Pitchaya edge out Khon Kaen United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Khon Kaen United 1-0 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.33 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.91 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Khon Kaen United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.01 / defence 0.97 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.86 / defence 1.30, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 46% | Draw 28% | Khon Kaen United 25%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 41%, Khon Kaen United 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.41 PPG, Khon Kaen United 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nong Bua Pitchaya win broke the near-deadlock. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.