Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya host Chiangrai United at Pitchaya Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 January 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Nong Bua Pitchaya — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya at Pitchaya Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nong Bua Pitchaya at 0.90 PPG versus Chiangrai United's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Chiangrai United have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Nong Bua Pitchaya's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Chiangrai United winning.
It is worth noting that Chiangrai United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Nong Bua Pitchaya trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Chiangrai United trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 54% versus Chiangrai United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 48% | Chiangrai United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.48 xG and Chiangrai United 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.920 / defence 0.936 | Chiangrai United attack 0.955 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.219. Data: 46 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 46 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 45% | Draw 27% | Chiangrai United 27%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Chiangrai United 3.70. Nong Bua Pitchaya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 40% | Chiangrai United 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 45% | Draw 27% | Chiangrai United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.48 / Chiangrai United 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.920 / def 0.936 | Chiangrai United attack 0.955 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Chiangrai United xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1 - 2 Chiangrai United.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 45% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United?
Record (3 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 0 | Chiangrai United 3W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nong Bua Pitchaya's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Chiangrai United's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
45%
2.20
27%
3.64
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.57
1.09
Chiangrai United xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.09 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Nong Bua Pitchaya have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 15W 12D 19L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangrai United's form line: 19W 14D 13L from 46 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.24 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nong Bua Pitchaya have posted 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (11W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 10W 6D 7L from 23 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.22 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 15W 12D 19L in their last 46 games (1.24 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 19W 14D 13L in their last 46 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Chiangrai United away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.65 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Nong Bua Pitchaya or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chiangrai United go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
0
Draws
6
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Chiangrai United have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Chiangrai United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 39%, Chiangrai United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 44% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 35%; Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 56% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 44% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chiangrai United defy the odds to beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.48 xG and Chiangrai United 1.09 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chiangrai United outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.92 / defence 0.94 against Chiangrai United attack 0.95 / defence 1.19, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 45% | Draw 27% | Chiangrai United 27%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Chiangrai United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 48%, Chiangrai United 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.24 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.