Nong Bua Pitchaya 3-1 Chiangmai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya host Chiangmai United at Pitchaya Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Nong Bua Pitchaya — All Games: 3W 2D 4L from 9 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.22 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya have posted 3W 0D 2L at Pitchaya Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.22 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangmai United stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Chiangmai United have posted 1W 2D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Nong Bua Pitchaya have the edge — a 0.62 PPG advantage (1.22 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Nong Bua Pitchaya trading profile (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Chiangmai United trading profile (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 56% versus Chiangmai United 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nong Bua Pitchaya 33% | Chiangmai United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.34 xG and Chiangmai United 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.944 / defence 0.985 | Chiangmai United attack 0.803 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.032 / away 1.313. Chiangmai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing Nong Bua Pitchaya's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 10 Chiangmai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 44% | Draw 27% | Chiangmai United 29%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Chiangmai United 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nong Bua Pitchaya 40% | Chiangmai United 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 44% | Draw 27% | Chiangmai United 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.34 / Chiangmai United 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.944 / def 0.985 | Chiangmai United attack 0.803 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.032 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Chiangmai United xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3 - 1 Chiangmai United.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 44% chance of winning, Chiangmai United a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangmai United will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangmai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangmai United in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.11 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Chiangmai United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating (0.94) and Chiangmai United's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangmai United's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
44%
2.30
27%
3.65
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.38
1.04
Chiangmai United xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
8%
13.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangmai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.04 for Chiangmai United, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nong Bua Pitchaya come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 2D 4L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangmai United sit at 0.67 PPG from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Chiangmai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nong Bua Pitchaya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Chiangmai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home form reads 3W 0D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chiangmai United have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Chiangmai United are on 0.89 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Chiangmai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangmai United in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Chiangmai United have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Chiangmai United away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.80 PPG; Chiangmai United away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Nong Bua Pitchaya
0
Draws
0
Chiangmai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangmai United?
From 2 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 2, Chiangmai United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangmai United last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when Chiangmai United 1-3 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangmai United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Chiangmai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 40%, Chiangmai United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 60% (Chiangmai United).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Chiangmai United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Chiangmai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Chiangmai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 60% of Chiangmai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 60% of Chiangmai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangmai United tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chiangmai United in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nong Bua Pitchaya cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chiangmai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Chiangmai United 3-1 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.34 xG and Chiangmai United 1.04 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Chiangmai United attack 0.80 / defence 1.38, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 44% | Draw 27% | Chiangmai United 29%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 33%, Chiangmai United 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangmai United's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nong Bua Pitchaya arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Chiangmai United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.