Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Ratchaburi travel to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to take on Nakhon Ratchasima FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) versus 1.50 (Ratchaburi). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 2 for Ratchaburi and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–4 with Ratchaburi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 65% and Ratchaburi 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60% | Ratchaburi 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.93 xG and Ratchaburi 2.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.937 / defence 1.531 | Ratchaburi attack 1.208 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.727 / away 1.270. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 2.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 50 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 32% | Draw 20% | Ratchaburi 48%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.12 | Draw 5.00 | Ratchaburi 2.08. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 78% | Total xG 4.28. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.28 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 2.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 48% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 78%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 80% | Ratchaburi 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 32% | Draw 20% | Ratchaburi 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 78% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.93 / Ratchaburi 2.35 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.937 / def 1.531 | Ratchaburi attack 1.208 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.727 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
2.35
Ratchaburi xG
78%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 32% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 48% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (5 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W | Draws 2 | Ratchaburi 2W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.94) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 2.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.4%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.1%), 1-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
32%
3.11
20%
4.94
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
4.28
2.35
Ratchaburi xG
3.11
32%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.29
22%
BTTS No
4.47
Clean Sheet
10%
10.46
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
3%
32.58
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.4%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 2.35 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 4.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 6W 7D 7L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 8W 6D 6L from 20 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.25 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.70 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 8W 6D 6L in their last 20 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Ratchaburi won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
3
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 78%, Ratchaburi at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 67% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 56% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's matches and 67% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.93 xG and Ratchaburi 2.35 xG, a combined 4.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ratchaburi landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.53 against Ratchaburi attack 1.21 / defence 1.19, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 32% | Draw 20% | Ratchaburi 48%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60%, Ratchaburi 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.25 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.