Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-3 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Buriram United (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nakhon Ratchasima FC face Buriram United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Nakhon Ratchasima FC welcome Buriram United to 80th Birthday Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 80th Birthday Stadium, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Buriram United — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Buriram United have the better historical record — 7 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Buriram United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 55% versus Buriram United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51% | Buriram United 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.98 xG and Buriram United 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.812 / defence 1.041 | Buriram United attack 1.426 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.152. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.426 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 51 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 20% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 53%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Buriram United 1.89. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% | Buriram United 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: 80th Birthday Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 20% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.98 / Buriram United 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.812 / def 1.041 | Buriram United attack 1.426 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Buriram United xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0 - 3 Buriram United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 20% chance of winning, Buriram United a 53% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United?
Record (7 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 7W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Buriram United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack at 0.81x the league average against Buriram United's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
20%
5.11
28%
3.60
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.71
Buriram United xG
5.11
20%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
4%
28.25
20%
5.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.6 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.71 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent record stands at 10W 15D 26L from 51 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United, meanwhile, have gone 39W 6D 6L across 51 games — 2.41 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 1.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nakhon Ratchasima FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have managed 7W 8D 10L from 25 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Buriram United's away record stands at 18W 4D 3L across 25 trips, a 2.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.92 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 10W 15D 26L in their last 51 games (0.88 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 39W 6D 6L in their last 51 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.16 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.32 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Buriram United in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Buriram United have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Buriram United won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
0
Draws
8
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, Buriram United have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-3 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 64%, Buriram United 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 72% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 36%; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 64% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's matches and 72% of Buriram United's.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-3 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.98 xG and Buriram United 1.71 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Buriram United outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.04 against Buriram United attack 1.43 / defence 0.80, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 20% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 53%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51%, Buriram United 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Buriram United's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.