Muangthong United 0-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Muangthong United at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Chiangrai United travel to Thunder Dome Stadium to take on Muangthong United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 August 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Muangthong United stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Muangthong United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Muangthong United's home record at Thunder Dome Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thunder Dome Stadium.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Chiangrai United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Muangthong United have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Muangthong United, 2 for Chiangrai United and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Chiangrai United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Muangthong United trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Chiangrai United trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Muangthong United 53% and Chiangrai United 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 57% | Chiangrai United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.89 xG and Chiangrai United 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.161 / defence 0.933 | Chiangrai United attack 1.019 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.224. Data: 30 Muangthong United games / 30 Chiangrai United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 54% | Draw 23% | Chiangrai United 23%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Chiangrai United 4.35. Muangthong United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Muangthong United as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 50% | Chiangrai United 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 54% | Draw 23% | Chiangrai United 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Muangthong United 1.89 / Chiangrai United 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.161 / def 0.933 | Chiangrai United attack 1.019 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.614 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Chiangrai United xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United?
Muangthong United 0 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United part of?
Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 54% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Muangthong United and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Chiangrai United?
Record (4 meetings): Muangthong United 1W | Draws 1 | Chiangrai United 2W.
What form are Muangthong United and Chiangrai United in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Muangthong United (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Muangthong United's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Chiangrai United's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Muangthong United's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.32
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
3.05
1.16
Chiangrai United xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
3%
28.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.16 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Muangthong United's recent record stands at 14W 8D 8L from 30 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. Muangthong United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 10L across 30 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. Chiangrai United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Muangthong United on 1.67 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Muangthong United have managed 9W 4D 2L from 15 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chiangrai United's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Muangthong United are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.47 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United in 73%.
Defensively: Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Pre-Season
Chiangrai United
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 14W 8D 8L in their last 30 games (1.67 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Chiangrai United away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.07 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Muangthong United and Chiangrai United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Muangthong United have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Muangthong United's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Muangthong United
1
Draws
4
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 5, Chiangrai United have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Muangthong United 2-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Chiangrai United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 47%, Chiangrai United 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Muangthong United and 67% for Chiangrai United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Muangthong United's games and 73% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Muangthong United's matches and 67% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Muangthong United and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chiangrai United defy the odds to beat Muangthong United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Muangthong United 0-1 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.89 xG and Chiangrai United 1.16 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Muangthong United fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.16 / defence 0.93 against Chiangrai United attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 54% | Draw 23% | Chiangrai United 23%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Chiangrai United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 57%, Chiangrai United 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.67 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.