Chonburi FC vs Pattani – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Pattani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chonburi FC and Pattani meet at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 May 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Pattani (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.70 xG and Pattani 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.032 / defence 0.957 | Pattani attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.092. Data: 31 Chonburi FC games / 1 Pattani games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 56% | Draw 25% | Pattani 19%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Pattani 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 56% | Draw 25% | Pattani 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Chonburi FC 1.70 / Pattani 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.032 / def 0.957 | Pattani attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Pattani xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Pattani kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Pattani is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 16 May 2027 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Pattani part of?
Chonburi FC vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 56% chance of winning, Pattani a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chonburi FC and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Pattani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and Pattani in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Pattani (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 1.03x the league average against Pattani's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pattani's attack (0.85x) against Chonburi FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
56%
1.79
25%
3.98
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.58
0.89
Pattani xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
3%
28.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Pattani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Pattani expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.89 for Pattani, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Pattani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pattani's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pattani are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chonburi FC.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chonburi FC are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pattani are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Pattani in 0%.
Defensively: Pattani in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Pattani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Pattani in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Chonburi FC or Pattani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pattani in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Pattani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Pattani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 0% of Pattani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Pattani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 0% of Pattani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Pattani tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pattani in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.