Chonburi FC 1-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 48%, yet in-form Lamphun Warrior provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lamphun Warrior make the trip to Chonburi UTA Stadium to face Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Chonburi UTA Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at Chonburi UTA Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lamphun Warrior are 0.70 PPG clear of Chonburi FC in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Chonburi FC 2W, Lamphun Warrior 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 2–0 with Chonburi FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chonburi FC — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 54% versus Lamphun Warrior 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 52% | Lamphun Warrior 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.45 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.857 / defence 0.956 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.868 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.098. Data: 33 Chonburi FC games / 33 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 48% | Draw 29% | Lamphun Warrior 22%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Lamphun Warrior 4.55. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lamphun Warrior (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 50% | Lamphun Warrior 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 48% | Draw 29% | Lamphun Warrior 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Chonburi FC 1.45 / Lamphun Warrior 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.857 / def 0.956 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.868 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Lamphun Warrior xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Chonburi FC 1 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 48% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (2 meetings): Chonburi FC 2W | Draws 0 | Lamphun Warrior 0W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 0.86x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.87x) against Chonburi FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
48%
2.07
29%
3.41
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.36
0.91
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
5%
18.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.91 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chonburi FC come into this having played 33 games, going 13W 6D 14L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 1.09 PPG from 33 outings (9W 9D 15L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Chonburi FC against 1.09 for Lamphun Warrior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chonburi FC's home form reads 8W 3D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamphun Warrior have taken 0.81 points per game from 16 outings (3W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.85 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 13W 6D 14L in their last 33 games (1.36 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 9W 9D 15L in their last 33 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.69 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Chonburi FC
1
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 6 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 4, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 1-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Chonburi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 50%, Lamphun Warrior 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chonburi FC) and 31% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 31% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 31% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Lamphun Warrior 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Lamphun Warrior 1-0 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.45 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.91 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lamphun Warrior landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 48% | Draw 29% | Lamphun Warrior 22%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 52%, Lamphun Warrior 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.36 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.