BG Pathum United 5-2 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates BG Pathum United at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 4 as BG Pathum United welcome Muangthong United to BG Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, BG Pathum United have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. BG Pathum United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
BG Pathum United's home record at BG Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Muangthong United stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Muangthong United have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BG Pathum United 1.70 PPG, Muangthong United 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for BG Pathum United, 1 for Muangthong United and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Muangthong United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
BG Pathum United trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Muangthong United trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 39% versus Muangthong United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 52% | Muangthong United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.09 xG and Muangthong United 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 0.959 / defence 0.911 | Muangthong United attack 0.948 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.096. Data: 33 BG Pathum United games / 33 Muangthong United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 37% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 29%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Muangthong United 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BG Pathum United at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: BG Pathum United 50% | Muangthong United 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 37% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG BG Pathum United 1.09 / Muangthong United 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 0.959 / def 0.911 | Muangthong United attack 0.948 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Muangthong United xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United?
BG Pathum United 5 - 2 Muangthong United.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United part of?
BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 37% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both BG Pathum United and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Muangthong United?
Record (4 meetings): BG Pathum United 2W | Draws 1 | Muangthong United 1W.
What form are BG Pathum United and Muangthong United in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Muangthong United (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BG Pathum United's attack rating (0.96) and Muangthong United's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
37%
2.70
34%
2.98
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.04
0.95
Muangthong United xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 0.95 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BG Pathum United come into this having played 33 games, going 13W 7D 13L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for BG Pathum United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Muangthong United sit at 1.55 PPG from 33 outings (14W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: BG Pathum United on 1.39 PPG, Muangthong United on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
BG Pathum United's home form reads 10W 2D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — BG Pathum United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Muangthong United have taken 1.25 points per game from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.73 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Muangthong United in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Early Season
Muangthong United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 13W 7D 13L in their last 33 games (1.39 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 14W 9D 10L in their last 33 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Muangthong United away?
BG Pathum United's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.00 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.25 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BG Pathum United and Muangthong United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when BG Pathum United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BG Pathum United's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
BG Pathum United
3
Draws
2
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Muangthong United?
From 10 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 5, Muangthong United have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Muangthong United 1-1 BG Pathum United.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Muangthong United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Muangthong United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 50%, Muangthong United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (BG Pathum United) and 50% (Muangthong United).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Muangthong United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 56% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BG Pathum United vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 50% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Muangthong United tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BG Pathum United run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Muangthong United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Muangthong United 5-2 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.09 xG and Muangthong United 0.95 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. BG Pathum United beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Muangthong United outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Muangthong United attack 0.95 / defence 0.82, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 37% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 29%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 52%, Muangthong United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Muangthong United's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BG Pathum United 1.39 PPG, Muangthong United 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BG Pathum United win broke the near-deadlock. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Muangthong United (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.