Chiangrai United 0-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Ratchaburi travel to Singha Chiangrai Stadium to take on Chiangrai United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 March 2025, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangrai United have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's home record at Singha Chiangrai Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Singha Chiangrai Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at Singha Chiangrai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Chiangrai United) versus 1.80 (Ratchaburi). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Chiangrai United, 2 for Ratchaburi and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.1 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Ratchaburi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.1 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 42% versus Ratchaburi 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 44% | Ratchaburi 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.66 xG and Ratchaburi 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.925 / defence 0.712 | Ratchaburi attack 1.298 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.187. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — the away xG of 1.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Chiangrai United's defence rating of 0.712 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Chiangrai United games / 52 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 24%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Ratchaburi 4.17. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Chiangrai United 30% | Ratchaburi 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Chiangrai United 1.66 / Ratchaburi 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.925 / def 0.712 | Ratchaburi attack 1.298 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Ratchaburi xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Chiangrai United 0 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 49% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
Record (7 meetings): Chiangrai United 2W | Draws 3 | Ratchaburi 2W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chiangrai United's attack rating (0.93) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
49%
2.02
27%
3.77
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.76
1.10
Ratchaburi xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
5%
21.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.10 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 15W 12D 25L from 52 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 19L across 52 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.10 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 11W 7D 8L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Chiangrai United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 6W 8D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.50 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 15W 12D 25L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 20W 13D 19L in their last 52 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.54 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chiangrai United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chiangrai United
3
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 42%, Ratchaburi 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Chiangrai United) and 46% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 27% of games; Ratchaburi in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 50% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 46% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ratchaburi defy the odds to beat Chiangrai United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Chiangrai United 0-1 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.66 xG and Ratchaburi 1.10 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chiangrai United fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.93 / defence 0.71 against Ratchaburi attack 1.30 / defence 1.10, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 24%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Ratchaburi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 44%, Ratchaburi 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.10 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.