Chiangrai United vs Pattani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Pattani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Pattani travel to Leo Chiangrai Stadium to take on Chiangrai United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2027, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United's home record at Leo Chiangrai Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattani have recorded 2W 1D 4L from 7 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pattani's away record: 1W 0D 2L from 3 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chiangrai United 1.40 PPG, Pattani 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
Pattani in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 43% versus Pattani 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 29% | Pattani 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.50 xG and Pattani 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.794 / defence 0.848 | Pattani attack 0.920 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Chiangrai United's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pattani bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Chiangrai United games / 7 Pattani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 45% | Draw 28% | Pattani 28%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Pattani 3.57. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 40% | Pattani 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Leo Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 45% | Draw 28% | Pattani 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Chiangrai United 1.50 / Pattani 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.794 / def 0.848 | Pattani attack 0.920 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Pattani xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Pattani kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Pattani is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Pattani part of?
Chiangrai United vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 45% chance of winning, Pattani a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chiangrai United and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Pattani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangrai United and Pattani in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Pattani (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Pattani's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Pattani's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.62
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.63
1.14
Pattani xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
6%
16.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Pattani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Pattani expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.14 for Pattani, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Pattani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chiangrai United come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 1D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pattani sit at 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.00 PPG, Pattani on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chiangrai United's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Pattani have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Chiangrai United are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Pattani are on 1.00 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Pattani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Pattani in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Pattani have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Pattani away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.00 PPG; Pattani away: 1.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chiangrai United at 33%, Pattani at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Chiangrai United and 100% for Pattani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Pattani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Pattani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Chiangrai United's games and 100% of Pattani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chiangrai United vs Pattani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Chiangrai United's matches and 100% of Pattani's.
Do Chiangrai United and Pattani tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pattani in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.