Buriram United 2-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Buriram United at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Rayong FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Rayong FC travel to Chang Arena to take on Buriram United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 October 2025, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Buriram United — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Chang Arena, Buriram United have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Rayong FC have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayong FC's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Buriram United have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Buriram United, 0 for Rayong FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Buriram United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Buriram United trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Rayong FC trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Buriram United 51% and Rayong FC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Buriram United 73% | Rayong FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.98 xG and Rayong FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.451 / defence 0.966 | Rayong FC attack 1.087 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.095. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.451 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Buriram United games / 38 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 54% | Draw 26% | Rayong FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Rayong FC 5.00. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 40% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 54% | Draw 26% | Rayong FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Buriram United 1.98 / Rayong FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.451 / def 0.966 | Rayong FC attack 1.087 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Rayong FC xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Rayong FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Rayong FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Rayong FC?
Buriram United 2 - 1 Rayong FC.
Where is Buriram United vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Rayong FC part of?
Buriram United vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 54% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Buriram United and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Rayong FC?
Record (2 meetings): Buriram United 1W | Draws 1 | Rayong FC 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Rayong FC in?
Buriram United (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Rayong FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Rayong FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.86
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.12
1.15
Rayong FC xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
3%
36.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.15 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Rayong FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Buriram United's recent record stands at 28W 5D 4L from 37 games, a 2.41 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rayong FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 15L across 37 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 1.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rayong FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 14W 2D 2L from 18 games — 2.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayong FC's away record stands at 4W 4D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Buriram United are averaging 3.03 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.41 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC in 70%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Early Season
Rayong FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 28W 5D 4L in their last 37 games (2.41 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 11W 11D 15L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Rayong FC away?
Buriram United's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.44 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Rayong FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Rayong FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Buriram United and Rayong FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2026, when Rayong FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Rayong FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Buriram United
1
Draws
1
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Rayong FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 2, Rayong FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Rayong FC 3-0 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Rayong FC?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 33%, Rayong FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Buriram United and 61% for Rayong FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Rayong FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Buriram United's recent matches and 61% of Rayong FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Buriram United's matches and 61% of Rayong FC's.
Do Buriram United and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Rayong FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Rayong FC 2-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.98 xG and Rayong FC 1.15 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.45 / defence 0.97 against Rayong FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.90, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 54% | Draw 26% | Rayong FC 20%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 73%, Rayong FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Rayong FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.61 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.