Buriram United 2-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Buriram United welcome Nakhon Ratchasima FC to Chang Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Buriram United have gone 5W 1D 1L from 7 outings — a 2.29 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.86 goals per game, with 0.57 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.57 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 games at Chang Arena this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 2W 2D 3L from 7 Thai League 1 matches — 1.14 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nakhon Ratchasima FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.14 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Buriram United have the edge — a 1.15 PPG advantage (2.29 vs 1.14) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Buriram United trading profile (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 43% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 29% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Buriram United 43% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.98 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.344 / defence 0.913 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.739 / defence 1.465. League average goals — home 1.008 / away 1.286. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nakhon Ratchasima FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.465 — this is suppressing Buriram United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Buriram United games / 7 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 63% | Draw 21% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 50% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 63% | Draw 21% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG Buriram United 1.98 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.344 / def 0.913 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.739 / def 1.465 | league avg home 1.008 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Buriram United 2 - 0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 63% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Buriram United (all comps): 5W-1D-1L in 7 | 2.29 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 0.57 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.43 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Buriram United's attack at 1.34x the league average against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.78
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.85
0.87
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
14%
7.27
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
2%
46.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.87 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Buriram United have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 5W 1D 1L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form line: 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.15 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Buriram United have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L).
On the road, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Buriram United are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Early Season
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 games (2.29 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Buriram United's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.50 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Nakhon Ratchasima FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Buriram United have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Buriram United won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Buriram United
0
Draws
0
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 8, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-3 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 50%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Buriram United) and 25% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Buriram United's games and 75% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Buriram United's recent games and 25% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.98 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.87 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.34 / defence 0.91 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.47, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 63% | Draw 21% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 16%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 43%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.