Buriram United 4-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Buriram United welcome Chiangrai United to Chang Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Buriram United — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Buriram United have posted 6W 3D 1L at Chang Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Buriram United have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Buriram United register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Chiangrai United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Buriram United, 0 for Chiangrai United and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 45% versus Chiangrai United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 50% | Chiangrai United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.80 xG and Chiangrai United 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.378 / defence 0.884 | Chiangrai United attack 0.945 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.194. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.378 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Buriram United games / 42 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 55% | Draw 25% | Chiangrai United 20%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Chiangrai United 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 70% | Chiangrai United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 55% | Draw 25% | Chiangrai United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Buriram United 1.80 / Chiangrai United 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.378 / def 0.884 | Chiangrai United attack 0.945 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Chiangrai United xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Buriram United vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Chiangrai United?
Buriram United 4 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Buriram United vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Chiangrai United part of?
Buriram United vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 55% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Buriram United and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Chiangrai United?
Record (2 meetings): Buriram United 1W | Draws 1 | Chiangrai United 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Chiangrai United in?
Buriram United (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Chiangrai United (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Buriram United's attack at 1.38x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.02
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.80
1.00
Chiangrai United xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
3%
30.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.00 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Chiangrai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Buriram United come into this having played 42 games, going 28W 8D 6L for 2.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.60 PPG from 42 outings (18W 13D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Buriram United's home form reads 14W 5D 2L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 1.71 points per game from 21 outings (10W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.19 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Chiangrai United in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 28W 8D 6L in their last 42 games (2.19 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 18W 13D 11L in their last 42 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Chiangrai United away?
Buriram United's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.24 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Buriram United have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2025, when Buriram United won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Buriram United
2
Draws
0
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 8, Chiangrai United have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Buriram United 8-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Chiangrai United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 52%, Chiangrai United 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Buriram United) and 38% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Buriram United's recent matches and 52% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Buriram United's recent games and 38% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Chiangrai United 4-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.80 xG and Chiangrai United 1.00 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.38 / defence 0.88 against Chiangrai United attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 55% | Draw 25% | Chiangrai United 20%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 50%, Chiangrai United 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.