Bangkok United 0-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bangkok United (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bangkok United face Ratchaburi.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ratchaburi make the trip to Thammasat Stadium to face Bangkok United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 27 September 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bangkok United have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bangkok United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bangkok United at Thammasat Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thammasat Stadium.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Bangkok United's favour (2.00 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Bangkok United, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Ratchaburi — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Bangkok United winning.
The historical record gives Bangkok United a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bangkok United — key trading statistics (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bangkok United 49% versus Ratchaburi 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bangkok United 62% | Ratchaburi 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bangkok United 1.61 xG and Ratchaburi 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bangkok United attack 1.045 / defence 0.930 | Ratchaburi attack 0.717 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.748 / away 1.189. Data: 37 Bangkok United games / 37 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bangkok United 53% | Draw 32% | Ratchaburi 15%. Fair-value odds: Bangkok United 1.89 | Draw 3.12 | Ratchaburi 6.67. Bangkok United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bangkok United are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bangkok United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Bangkok United 40% | Ratchaburi 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Thammasat Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bangkok United 53% | Draw 32% | Ratchaburi 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Bangkok United 1.61 / Ratchaburi 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Bangkok United attack 1.045 / def 0.930 | Ratchaburi attack 0.717 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.748 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Bangkok United xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Ratchaburi xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Thammasat Stadium.
What was the final score in Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Bangkok United 0 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thammasat Stadium.
What competition is Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Bangkok United a 53% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 15% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bangkok United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Ratchaburi?
Record (6 meetings): Bangkok United 4W | Draws 1 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Bangkok United and Ratchaburi in?
Bangkok United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bangkok United's attack rating (1.04) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.72x) against Bangkok United's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
53%
1.87
32%
3.15
15%
6.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Bangkok United xG
Total xG
2.41
0.79
Ratchaburi xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
6.72
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
3%
33.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Bangkok United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Bangkok United and 0.79 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Bangkok United have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 21W 12D 4L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bangkok United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi's form line: 13W 8D 16L from 37 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ratchaburi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bangkok United have posted 2.12 PPG from 17 outings (10W 6D 1L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 5D 9L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bangkok United are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.41 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bangkok United
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bangkok United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Bangkok United have gone 21W 12D 4L in their last 37 games (2.03 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 13W 8D 16L in their last 37 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bangkok United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Bangkok United's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bangkok United at home: 2.12 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Bangkok United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 1-4 on 18 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bangkok United have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bangkok United
2
Draws
2
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Bangkok United have won 6, Ratchaburi have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bangkok United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bangkok United 1-4 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Bangkok United and Ratchaburi?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bangkok United 47%, Ratchaburi 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Bangkok United) and 29% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Bangkok United keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bangkok United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bangkok United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bangkok United's recent matches and 35% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Bangkok United's recent games and 29% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bangkok United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Bangkok United have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bangkok United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Bangkok United and Ratchaburi drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.61 xG and Ratchaburi 0.79 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bangkok United fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.04 / defence 0.93 against Ratchaburi attack 0.72 / defence 0.88, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 53% | Draw 32% | Ratchaburi 15%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 62%, Ratchaburi 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bangkok United's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.