Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Ayutthaya FC welcome Pattani to Ayutthaya Province Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Pattani — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Ayutthaya FC) versus 1.00 (Pattani). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.52 xG and Pattani 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.917 / defence 1.193 | Pattani attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 0.918. Data: 30 Ayutthaya FC games / 1 Pattani games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 50% | Draw 28% | Pattani 22%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Pattani 4.55. Ayutthaya FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ayutthaya FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 50% | Draw 28% | Pattani 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.52 / Pattani 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.917 / def 1.193 | Pattani attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.438 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Pattani xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 50% chance of winning, Pattani a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Pattani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Pattani in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Pattani (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ayutthaya FC's attack at 0.92x the league average against Pattani's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pattani's attack versus Ayutthaya FC's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.64
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.45
0.93
Pattani xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
5%
20.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Pattani expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 0.93 for Pattani, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ayutthaya FC's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pattani, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ayutthaya FC by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pattani heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pattani are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Ayutthaya FC's scoring rate against Pattani's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Pattani in 0%.
Defensively: Pattani in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
Pattani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Pattani in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Ayutthaya FC or Pattani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ayutthaya FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pattani in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Pattani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Pattani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Ayutthaya FC's recent matches and 0% of Pattani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Ayutthaya FC's recent games and 0% of Pattani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.