Yverdon Sport 3-0 FC Zurich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Zurich at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Zurich make the trip to Stade Municipal to face Yverdon Sport in Super League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 13:15 UTC.
Form
Yverdon Sport (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yverdon Sport's home record at Stade Municipal: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
FC Zurich's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Zurich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Zurich have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Yverdon Sport lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with FC Zurich winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Yverdon Sport — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Zurich — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 71% and FC Zurich 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 67% | FC Zurich 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.20 xG and FC Zurich 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.936 / defence 1.257 | FC Zurich attack 0.984 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.328. Data: 21 Yverdon Sport games / 57 FC Zurich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 28% | Draw 24% | FC Zurich 48%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | FC Zurich 2.08. FC Zurich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Zurich as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Zurich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 70% | FC Zurich 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 28% | Draw 24% | FC Zurich 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.20 / FC Zurich 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 0.936 / def 1.257 | FC Zurich attack 0.984 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: FC Zurich (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.64
FC Zurich xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich?
Yverdon Sport 3 - 0 FC Zurich.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich part of?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 28% chance of winning, FC Zurich a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Zurich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich?
Record (1 meetings): Yverdon Sport 0W | Draws 0 | FC Zurich 1W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. FC Zurich (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Yverdon Sport's attack rating (0.94) and FC Zurich's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Zurich's attack (0.98x) against Yverdon Sport's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 21/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Zurich Win
28%
3.60
24%
4.10
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.84
1.64
FC Zurich xG
3.60
28%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
5%
18.57
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.64 for FC Zurich, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Yverdon Sport have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 6W 6D 9L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Zurich's form line: 8W 9D 4L from 21 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for FC Zurich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Zurich are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Yverdon Sport.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Yverdon Sport have posted 1.80 PPG from 10 outings (5W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Zurich have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; FC Zurich are on 1.62 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
FC Zurich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 games (1.14 PPG), while FC Zurich have gone 8W 9D 4L in their last 21 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or FC Zurich away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 1.80 PPG; FC Zurich away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Yverdon Sport or FC Zurich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Yverdon Sport have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, FC Zurich in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Yverdon Sport won 3-0 on 4 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yverdon Sport have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Zurich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Yverdon Sport
0
Draws
4
FC Zurich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich?
From 7 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 3, FC Zurich have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2025, when Yverdon Sport 3-2 FC Zurich.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich?
FC Zurich have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 70%, FC Zurich 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Yverdon Sport and 70% for FC Zurich. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Zurich in 40%; FC Zurich in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / FC Zurich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play FC Zurich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Yverdon Sport's games and 50% of FC Zurich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 70% of FC Zurich's.
Do Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, FC Zurich in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Yverdon Sport run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Zurich.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport beat FC Zurich 3-0 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.20 xG and FC Zurich 1.64 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Yverdon Sport beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Zurich landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.94 / defence 1.26 against FC Zurich attack 0.98 / defence 0.86, drawn from 21/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 28% | Draw 24% | FC Zurich 48%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Yverdon Sport win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 67%, FC Zurich 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Zurich's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Zurich arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Yverdon Sport winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. FC Zurich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.