Yverdon Sport 3-1 FC Luzern – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Relegation Round - 4 as Yverdon Sport welcome FC Luzern to Stade Municipal. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stade Municipal, Yverdon Sport have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
FC Luzern — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Luzern away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Yverdon Sport) versus 1.20 (FC Luzern). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Yverdon Sport register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Luzern in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Yverdon Sport, 2 for FC Luzern and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with FC Luzern winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Yverdon Sport trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FC Luzern trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 64% and FC Luzern 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 67% | FC Luzern 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.84 xG and FC Luzern 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 1.119 / defence 1.144 | FC Luzern attack 1.036 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.108. Data: 33 Yverdon Sport games / 69 FC Luzern games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 50% | Draw 23% | FC Luzern 27%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | FC Luzern 3.70. Yverdon Sport hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Yverdon Sport as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 60% | FC Luzern 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 50% | Draw 23% | FC Luzern 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.84 / FC Luzern 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 1.119 / def 1.144 | FC Luzern attack 1.036 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.31
FC Luzern xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern?
Yverdon Sport 3 - 1 FC Luzern.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern part of?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 50% chance of winning, FC Luzern a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern?
Record (3 meetings): Yverdon Sport 1W | Draws 0 | FC Luzern 2W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. FC Luzern (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Yverdon Sport's attack at 1.12x the league average against FC Luzern's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Luzern's attack versus Yverdon Sport's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
50%
2.01
23%
4.39
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
3.15
1.31
FC Luzern xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
4%
23.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.31 for FC Luzern, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Yverdon Sport have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 12W 7D 17L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
FC Luzern's form line: 13W 10D 13L from 36 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yverdon Sport on 1.19 PPG, FC Luzern on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Yverdon Sport have posted 2.06 PPG from 18 outings (11W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Luzern have gone 4W 5D 9L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Luzern's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; FC Luzern are on 1.25 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; FC Luzern in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Current Season
FC Luzern
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 12W 7D 17L in their last 36 games (1.19 PPG), while FC Luzern have gone 13W 10D 13L in their last 36 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or FC Luzern away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 2.06 PPG; FC Luzern away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Yverdon Sport's record when hosting FC Luzern specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Yverdon Sport
1
Draws
3
FC Luzern
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern?
From 7 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 3, FC Luzern have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Yverdon Sport 2-2 FC Luzern.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Luzern see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 61%, FC Luzern 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Yverdon Sport and 50% for FC Luzern. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / FC Luzern away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play FC Luzern?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Yverdon Sport's games and 67% of FC Luzern's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs FC Luzern usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 50% of FC Luzern's.
Do Yverdon Sport and FC Luzern tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, FC Luzern in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yverdon Sport cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Luzern.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport beat FC Luzern 3-1 at Stade Municipal, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.84 xG and FC Luzern 1.31 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Yverdon Sport beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 1.12 / defence 1.14 against FC Luzern attack 1.04 / defence 1.13, drawn from 33/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 50% | Draw 23% | FC Luzern 27%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 67%, FC Luzern 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
FC Luzern's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.19 PPG, FC Luzern 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yverdon Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. FC Luzern (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.