Servette FC 2-1 FC Vaduz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Servette FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Servette FC vs FC Vaduz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Geneve plays host to Servette FC versus FC Vaduz in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 24 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Servette FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de Geneve, Servette FC have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Servette FC are significantly better at Stade de Geneve than their overall form suggests.
FC Vaduz (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Vaduz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Vaduz away from home this season: 0W 0D 5L from 5 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Servette FC against 0.90 for FC Vaduz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Servette FC half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
FC Vaduz half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Servette FC 50% and FC Vaduz 90% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Servette FC 50% | FC Vaduz 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Servette FC 1.85 xG and FC Vaduz 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Servette FC attack 0.855 / defence 0.746 | FC Vaduz attack 0.823 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.864 / away 1.764. Servette FC's defence rating of 0.746 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Servette FC games / 10 FC Vaduz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Servette FC 55% | Draw 23% | FC Vaduz 22%. Fair-value odds: Servette FC 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | FC Vaduz 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Servette FC (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Servette FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Servette FC 40% | FC Vaduz 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Servette FC vs FC Vaduz | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de Geneve • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Servette FC 55% | Draw 23% | FC Vaduz 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Servette FC 1.85 / FC Vaduz 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Servette FC attack 0.855 / def 0.746 | FC Vaduz attack 0.823 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.864 / away 1.764 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Servette FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
FC Vaduz xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Servette FC vs FC Vaduz kick off?
Servette FC vs FC Vaduz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Stade de Geneve.
What was the final score in Servette FC vs FC Vaduz?
Servette FC 2 - 1 FC Vaduz.
Where is Servette FC vs FC Vaduz being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Geneve.
What competition is Servette FC vs FC Vaduz part of?
Servette FC vs FC Vaduz is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Servette FC vs FC Vaduz?
Our statistical model gives Servette FC a 55% chance of winning, FC Vaduz a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Servette FC vs FC Vaduz?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Servette FC and FC Vaduz will score (BTTS).
Will Servette FC vs FC Vaduz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and FC Vaduz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Servette FC and FC Vaduz in?
Servette FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. FC Vaduz (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Servette FC's attack rating (0.85) and FC Vaduz's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Vaduz's attack (0.82x) against Servette FC's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 43/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.42
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Servette FC xG
Total xG
2.94
1.08
FC Vaduz xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
3%
29.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Servette FC vs FC Vaduz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Servette FC and FC Vaduz expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Servette FC and 1.08 for FC Vaduz, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Servette FC vs FC Vaduz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Servette FC have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 4W 1D 5L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Servette FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Vaduz's form line: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for FC Vaduz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Servette FC are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Vaduz.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Servette FC have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, FC Vaduz have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Vaduz's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Servette FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Servette FC are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; FC Vaduz are on 2.10 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Vaduz in 90%.
Last 10 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Servette FC
Blended
FC Vaduz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Servette FC and FC Vaduz in coming into this match?
Servette FC have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while FC Vaduz have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Servette FC at home or FC Vaduz away?
Servette FC's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Servette FC at home: 1.40 PPG; FC Vaduz away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Servette FC
0
Draws
0
FC Vaduz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and FC Vaduz?
From 1 meetings on record, Servette FC have won 1, FC Vaduz have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Servette FC and FC Vaduz last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Servette FC 2-1 FC Vaduz.
Who has won more matches between Servette FC and FC Vaduz?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
FC Vaduz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 40% for Servette FC, 100% for FC Vaduz — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Servette FC and 100% for FC Vaduz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Servette FC have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Servette FC home games / FC Vaduz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Servette FC play FC Vaduz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Servette FC's games and 100% of FC Vaduz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Servette FC vs FC Vaduz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Servette FC's matches and 100% of FC Vaduz's.
Do Servette FC and FC Vaduz tend to score early?
Servette FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Vaduz in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Servette FC edge out FC Vaduz 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Servette FC beat FC Vaduz 2-1 at Stade de Geneve, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.85 xG and FC Vaduz 1.08 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.75 against FC Vaduz attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 43/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Servette FC 55% | Draw 23% | FC Vaduz 22%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 50%, FC Vaduz 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Servette FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
FC Vaduz's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.