Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC ST. Gallen (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lausanne face FC ST. Gallen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host FC ST. Gallen at Stade de la Tuiliere in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lausanne — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lausanne have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stade de la Tuiliere — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Lausanne are significantly better at Stade de la Tuiliere than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC ST. Gallen — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
FC ST. Gallen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 10 encounters against Lausanne's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2026, ended 0–1 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC ST. Gallen have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Lausanne trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 62% and FC ST. Gallen 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lausanne 66% | FC ST. Gallen 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.63 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.927 / defence 1.278 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.885 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.852 / away 1.744. Data: 45 Lausanne games / 45 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 32% | Draw 22% | FC ST. Gallen 46%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 3.12 | Draw 4.55 | FC ST. Gallen 2.17. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.60 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 70% | FC ST. Gallen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade de la Tuiliere • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 32% | Draw 22% | FC ST. Gallen 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Lausanne 1.63 / FC ST. Gallen 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.927 / def 1.278 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.885 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.852 / away 1.744 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.97
FC ST. Gallen xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Stade de la Tuiliere.
Where is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 32% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 46% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (10 meetings): Lausanne 1W | Draws 2 | FC ST. Gallen 7W.
What form are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen in?
Lausanne (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
32%
3.10
22%
4.61
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.60
1.97
FC ST. Gallen xG
3.10
32%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
14%
7.20
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
4%
22.33
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.97 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lausanne come into this having played 50 games, going 12W 12D 26L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.78 PPG from 50 outings (26W 11D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC ST. Gallen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Lausanne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lausanne's home form reads 6W 7D 12L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.84 points per game from 25 outings (13W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.82 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 70%.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 12W 12D 26L in their last 50 games (0.96 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 26W 11D 13L in their last 50 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC ST. Gallen's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.00 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lausanne's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lausanne
2
Draws
7
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 1, FC ST. Gallen have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 1-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lausanne at 72%, FC ST. Gallen at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Lausanne and 68% for FC ST. Gallen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Lausanne's games and 80% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Lausanne's matches and 68% of FC ST. Gallen's.
Do Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.