BSC Young Boys 6-1 FC Winterthur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BSC Young Boys at 73% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
BSC Young Boys welcome FC Winterthur to Stadion Wankdorf in Super League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 14 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, BSC Young Boys have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
BSC Young Boys at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — BSC Young Boys are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FC Winterthur — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, FC Winterthur have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BSC Young Boys 0.80 PPG, FC Winterthur 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
BSC Young Boys hold a clear advantage across the 9 H2H matches in our data, with 6 wins compared to 1 for FC Winterthur and 2 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended BSC Young Boys 5–0 FC Winterthur — a BSC Young Boys win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both BSC Young Boys and goals — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC Winterthur in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BSC Young Boys 62% versus FC Winterthur 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BSC Young Boys 64% | FC Winterthur 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 2.88 xG and FC Winterthur 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.158 / defence 1.037 | FC Winterthur attack 0.670 / defence 1.436. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.519. FC Winterthur's defence rating of 1.436 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing BSC Young Boys's projected output up. FC Winterthur's attack rating of 0.670 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from BSC Young Boys's last 57 games and FC Winterthur's last 56.
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 73% | Draw 17% | FC Winterthur 10%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 1.36 | Draw 5.90 | FC Winterthur 10.38. The model has a clear lean to BSC Young Boys (73%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.88 / 1.05) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BSC Young Boys at 73% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (BSC Young Boys 6 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.93 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (BSC Young Boys's last 10 home games and FC Winterthur's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: BSC Young Boys 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Winterthur 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur | Competition: Super League, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 73% | Draw 17% | FC Winterthur 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% (Under 25%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG BSC Young Boys 2.88 / FC Winterthur 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.158 / def 1.037 | FC Winterthur attack 0.670 / def 1.436 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.519 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.88
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
1.05
FC Winterthur xG
63%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur FAQs
What time does BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur?
BSC Young Boys 6 - 1 FC Winterthur.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur part of?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur is a Super League fixture (matchday 25) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 73% chance of winning, FC Winterthur a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both BSC Young Boys and FC Winterthur will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
BSC Young Boys's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against FC Winterthur's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.88. The same calculation in reverse, FC Winterthur's attack versus BSC Young Boys's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from BSC Young Boys's last 57 games and FC Winterthur's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.6%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
73%
1.36
17%
5.90
10%
10.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.88
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
3.93
1.05
FC Winterthur xG
1.36
73%
Home win
5.90
17%
Draw
10.38
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
6%
17.78
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
1%
184.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and FC Winterthur expected to score?
The model projects 2.88 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.05 for FC Winterthur, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, BSC Young Boys have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 26W 16D 19L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
FC Winterthur's form line: 14W 12D 35L from 61 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L.
Put side by side, BSC Young Boys are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Winterthur.
Venue Form
On home soil, BSC Young Boys have posted 2.17 PPG from their last 29 home games (19W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — BSC Young Boys are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Winterthur have gone 4W 6D 19L from their last 29 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BSC Young Boys come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BSC Young Boys are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; FC Winterthur are on 1.15 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BSC Young Boys have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Blended
FC Winterthur
Blended
BSC Young Boys (Home) vs FC Winterthur (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BSC Young Boys
Blended
FC Winterthur
Blended
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur Form FAQs
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC Winterthur in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 26W 16D 19L in their last 61 games (1.54 PPG), while FC Winterthur have gone 14W 12D 35L in their last 61 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or FC Winterthur away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 2.17 PPG; FC Winterthur away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: BSC Young Boys have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Nov 2025, when BSC Young Boys won BSC Young Boys 5-0 FC Winterthur.
BSC Young Boys's record when hosting FC Winterthur specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
BSC Young Boys
2
Draws
1
FC Winterthur
Recent Meetings
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC Winterthur?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, BSC Young Boys have won 7, FC Winterthur have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and FC Winterthur last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: BSC Young Boys 6-1 FC Winterthur.
Who has won more matches between BSC Young Boys and FC Winterthur?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
FC Winterthur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BSC Young Boys 66%, FC Winterthur 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for BSC Young Boys and 79% for FC Winterthur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BSC Young Boys keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; FC Winterthur in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / FC Winterthur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Winterthur Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BSC Young Boys and FC Winterthur matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of BSC Young Boys's games and 55% of FC Winterthur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are BSC Young Boys and FC Winterthur matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of BSC Young Boys's matches and 79% of FC Winterthur's.
Do BSC Young Boys and FC Winterthur matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of BSC Young Boys's recent matches and 76% of FC Winterthur's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BSC Young Boys run riot with a 6-1 hammering of FC Winterthur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat FC Winterthur 6-1 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 2.88 xG and FC Winterthur 1.05 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. BSC Young Boys beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against FC Winterthur attack 0.67 / defence 1.44, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 73% | Draw 17% | FC Winterthur 10%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 64%, FC Winterthur 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC Winterthur's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.28 average — above their attacking norm. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.