FC Sion 3-1 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sion at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host BSC Young Boys at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Sion have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stade de Tourbillon — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Tourbillon. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League games this season, BSC Young Boys have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, FC Sion have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for FC Sion, 3 for BSC Young Boys and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with FC Sion winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
BSC Young Boys in-play tendencies (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 57% and BSC Young Boys 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 44% | BSC Young Boys 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.84 xG and BSC Young Boys 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.803 / defence 0.576 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.975 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.751 / away 1.548. BSC Young Boys bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing FC Sion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FC Sion's defence rating of 0.576 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 FC Sion games / 58 BSC Young Boys games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 58% | Draw 27% | BSC Young Boys 15%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | BSC Young Boys 6.67. The model has a clear lean to FC Sion (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Sion are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Sion 30% | BSC Young Boys 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 58% | Draw 27% | BSC Young Boys 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Sion 1.84 / BSC Young Boys 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.803 / def 0.576 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.975 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.751 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
0.87
BSC Young Boys xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
FC Sion 3 - 1 BSC Young Boys.
Where is FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys part of?
FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 58% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Sion and BSC Young Boys will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and BSC Young Boys?
Record (7 meetings): FC Sion 3W | Draws 1 | BSC Young Boys 3W.
What form are FC Sion and BSC Young Boys in?
FC Sion (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. BSC Young Boys (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Sion's attack rating (0.80) and BSC Young Boys's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BSC Young Boys's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
58%
1.73
27%
3.67
15%
6.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.71
0.87
BSC Young Boys xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
6.74
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
2%
42.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are FC Sion and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for FC Sion and 0.87 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Sion come into this having played 63 games, going 20W 21D 22L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BSC Young Boys sit at 1.54 PPG from 63 outings (27W 16D 20L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for BSC Young Boys is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sion on 1.29 PPG, BSC Young Boys on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Sion's home form reads 14W 12D 6L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, BSC Young Boys have taken 0.97 points per game from 32 outings (7W 10D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BSC Young Boys's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Sion are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 1.76 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BSC Young Boys in 63%.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
BSC Young Boys
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 20W 21D 22L in their last 63 games (1.29 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 27W 16D 20L in their last 63 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or BSC Young Boys away?
FC Sion's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.69 PPG; BSC Young Boys away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2023, when BSC Young Boys won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting BSC Young Boys specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Sion
2
Draws
4
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and BSC Young Boys?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 4, BSC Young Boys have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when BSC Young Boys 4-2 FC Sion.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 53%, BSC Young Boys 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (FC Sion) and 59% (BSC Young Boys).
On the defensive side: FC Sion keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; BSC Young Boys in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play BSC Young Boys?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC Sion's games and 59% of BSC Young Boys's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of FC Sion's recent games and 59% of BSC Young Boys's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and BSC Young Boys tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, BSC Young Boys in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over BSC Young Boys.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat BSC Young Boys 3-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.84 xG and BSC Young Boys 0.87 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Sion beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.80 / defence 0.58 against BSC Young Boys attack 0.97 / defence 1.31, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 58% | Draw 27% | BSC Young Boys 15%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 44%, BSC Young Boys 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.29 PPG, BSC Young Boys 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.