Utsikten 1-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Utsikten at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Utsikten face GIF Sundsvall.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Utsikten welcome GIF Sundsvall to Bravida Arena in Superettan (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Utsikten have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Utsikten's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Utsikten are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
GIF Sundsvall — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
GIF Sundsvall's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Utsikten) versus 1.20 (GIF Sundsvall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Utsikten have won 1, GIF Sundsvall 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Utsikten 0–1 GIF Sundsvall — a GIF Sundsvall win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Utsikten trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 53% versus GIF Sundsvall 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 52% | GIF Sundsvall 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.42 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 0.921 / defence 0.890 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.889 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 0.888. Data: built from Utsikten's last 33 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Utsikten 54% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 18%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 1.84 | Draw 3.67 | GIF Sundsvall 5.42. Utsikten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utsikten as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Utsikten's last 10 home games and GIF Sundsvall's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Utsikten 60% (last 10 home games) | GIF Sundsvall 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Utsikten 33 games, GIF Sundsvall 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, matchday 4 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 54% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Utsikten 1.42 / GIF Sundsvall 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 0.921 / def 0.890 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.889 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.328 / away 0.888 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
0.70
GIF Sundsvall xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall FAQs
What time does Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall?
Utsikten 1 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall is a Superettan fixture (matchday 4) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 54% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Utsikten and GIF Sundsvall will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Utsikten's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Utsikten's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Utsikten's last 33 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.67
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.12
0.70
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
4%
22.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Utsikten and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Utsikten and 0.70 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Utsikten come into this having played 60 games, going 26W 14D 20L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, GIF Sundsvall sit at 0.82 PPG from 60 outings (13W 10D 37L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Utsikten carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Utsikten's home form reads 13W 10D 7L across their last 30 home games, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, GIF Sundsvall have taken 0.57 points per game from their last 30 away games (4W 5D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utsikten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Utsikten are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.08 scored and 2.22 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Utsikten (Home) vs GIF Sundsvall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Utsikten
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall Form FAQs
What form are Utsikten and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 13W 10D 37L in their last 60 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Utsikten's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.63 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Utsikten or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utsikten have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from June 2023. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 2 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Jun 2023, when Utsikten won Utsikten 5-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Utsikten's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Utsikten
1
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and GIF Sundsvall?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Utsikten have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Utsikten and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2025: Utsikten 4-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and GIF Sundsvall?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 63%, GIF Sundsvall 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Utsikten) and 57% (GIF Sundsvall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Utsikten vs GIF Sundsvall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Utsikten and GIF Sundsvall matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Utsikten's games and 47% of GIF Sundsvall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Utsikten and GIF Sundsvall matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Utsikten's matches and 57% of GIF Sundsvall's.
Do Utsikten and GIF Sundsvall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Utsikten's recent matches and 83% of GIF Sundsvall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Utsikten edge out GIF Sundsvall 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.42 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.70 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.89 / defence 1.16, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 54% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 18%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 52%, GIF Sundsvall 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Utsikten arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Utsikten (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.