Orebro SK 3-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Orebro SK face Varbergs BoIS FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Varbergs BoIS FC make the trip to Behrn Arena to face Orebro SK in Superettan (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Monday 22 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Current Form

Orebro SK's record over their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Orebro SK at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Orebro SK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Varbergs BoIS FC have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Orebro SK, 3 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2021, ended Orebro SK 0–3 Varbergs BoIS FC — a Varbergs BoIS FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Orebro SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 50% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 62% | Varbergs BoIS FC 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.32 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.919 / defence 0.993 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.748 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 0.888. Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating of 0.748 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Data: built from Orebro SK's last 33 games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 3.

Result probabilities: Orebro SK 52% | Draw 30% | Varbergs BoIS FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.93 | Draw 3.29 | Varbergs BoIS FC 5.59. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Orebro SK as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orebro SK if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — low conviction — though recent form (Orebro SK's last 10 home games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Orebro SK 40% (last 10 home games) | Varbergs BoIS FC 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights