Umeå FC 3-3 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Umeå FC vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Orgryte IS travel to Umea Energi Arena to take on Umeå FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Orgryte IS — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Orgryte IS's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Umeå FC 0.84 xG and Orgryte IS 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Umeå FC attack 0.618 / defence 1.332 | Orgryte IS attack 0.918 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.270. Umeå FC's attack strength of 0.618 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Umeå FC games / 39 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Umeå FC 20% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 54%. Fair-value odds: Umeå FC 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Orgryte IS 1.85. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Umeå FC vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Umea Energi Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Umeå FC 20% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Umeå FC 0.84 / Orgryte IS 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Umeå FC attack 0.618 / def 1.332 | Orgryte IS attack 0.918 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Umeå FC xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Orgryte IS xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Umeå FC vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Umeå FC vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 May 2025 at Umea Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Umeå FC vs Orgryte IS?
Umeå FC 3 - 3 Orgryte IS.
Where is Umeå FC vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Umea Energi Arena.
What competition is Umeå FC vs Orgryte IS part of?
Umeå FC vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Umeå FC vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Umeå FC a 20% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Umeå FC and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Umeå FC vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Umeå FC and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Umeå FC and Orgryte IS in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Orgryte IS away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Umeå FC's attack rating (0.62) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Umeå FC's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
20%
4.94
26%
3.91
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Umeå FC xG
Total xG
2.39
1.55
Orgryte IS xG
4.94
20%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
4%
23.32
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 14.2 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Umeå FC vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Umeå FC and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Umeå FC and 1.55 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Umeå FC vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Umeå FC
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Umeå FC and Orgryte IS runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 15 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Umeå FC
1
Draws
1
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Umeå FC and Orgryte IS?
From 2 meetings on record, Umeå FC have won 0, Orgryte IS have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Umeå FC and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2025, when Orgryte IS 3-1 Umeå FC.
Who has won more matches between Umeå FC and Orgryte IS?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Umeå FC home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Umeå FC and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 10, as Umeå FC and Orgryte IS drew 3-3 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 0.84 xG and Orgryte IS 1.55 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Umeå FC beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orgryte IS outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.62 / defence 1.33 against Orgryte IS attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 20% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 54%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.