Umeå FC 1-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Umeå FC vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Umea Energi Arena plays host to Umeå FC versus Orebro SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 19 July 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Umeå FC (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Umeå FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Umeå FC have posted 0W 2D 5L at Umea Energi Arena — 0.29 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game.
Orebro SK have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.20 for Umeå FC, 0.40 for Orebro SK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Umeå FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Orebro SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Umeå FC 43% versus Orebro SK 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Umeå FC 50% | Orebro SK 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Umeå FC 1.35 xG and Orebro SK 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Umeå FC attack 0.728 / defence 1.301 | Orebro SK attack 0.917 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.321. Umeå FC's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Umeå FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Umeå FC games / 44 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Umeå FC 33% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 43%. Fair-value odds: Umeå FC 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Orebro SK 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orebro SK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Umeå FC 43% | Orebro SK 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Umeå FC vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Umea Energi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jul 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Umeå FC 33% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Umeå FC 1.35 / Orebro SK 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Umeå FC attack 0.728 / def 1.301 | Orebro SK attack 0.917 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Umeå FC xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Orebro SK xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Umeå FC vs Orebro SK kick off?
Umeå FC vs Orebro SK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 July 2025 at Umea Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Umeå FC vs Orebro SK?
Umeå FC 1 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is Umeå FC vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Umea Energi Arena.
What competition is Umeå FC vs Orebro SK part of?
Umeå FC vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Umeå FC vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Umeå FC a 33% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Umeå FC and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Umeå FC vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Umeå FC and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Umeå FC and Orebro SK in?
Umeå FC (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Umeå FC's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.92x) against Umeå FC's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
33%
3.05
24%
4.09
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Umeå FC xG
Total xG
2.93
1.58
Orebro SK xG
3.05
33%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
7%
14.75
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Umeå FC vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Umeå FC and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Umeå FC and 1.58 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Umeå FC vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Umeå FC have picked up 0.21 PPG on a 0W 3D 11L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Umeå FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK's form line: 0W 4D 10L from 14 games, 0.29 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.21 PPG for Umeå FC against 0.29 for Orebro SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Umeå FC have posted 0.29 PPG from 7 outings (0W 2D 5L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 0W 1D 6L from 7 away games — 0.14 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Umeå FC are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.21 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.00 scored and 2.07 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Umeå FC
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Umeå FC and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Umeå FC have gone 0W 3D 11L in their last 14 games (0.21 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 0W 4D 10L in their last 14 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Umeå FC at home or Orebro SK away?
Umeå FC's home record (0.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Umeå FC at home: 0.29 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Umeå FC
2
Draws
0
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Umeå FC and Orebro SK?
From 2 meetings on record, Umeå FC have won 0, Orebro SK have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Umeå FC and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Orebro SK 1-1 Umeå FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Umeå FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Umeå FC 43%, Orebro SK 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Umeå FC and 86% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Umeå FC have failed to score in 57% of games; Orebro SK in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Umeå FC home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Umeå FC play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Umeå FC's games and 71% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Umeå FC vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Umeå FC's matches and 86% of Orebro SK's.
Do Umeå FC and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Umeå FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Umeå FC and Orebro SK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 15, as Umeå FC and Orebro SK drew 1-1 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 1.35 xG and Orebro SK 1.58 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.30 against Orebro SK attack 0.92 / defence 1.27, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 33% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 43%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Umeå FC 50%, Orebro SK 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Umeå FC's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Umeå FC 0.21 PPG, Orebro SK 0.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Umeå FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.