Skövde AIK 0-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Skövde AIK at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS meet at Borås Arena in Superettan (matchday 2). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Skövde AIK (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Skövde AIK have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Landskrona BoIS away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Skövde AIK. A 0.90 PPG lead over Landskrona BoIS (2.10 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Skövde AIK edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2023, ended Skövde AIK 4–2 Landskrona BoIS — a Skövde AIK win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Skövde AIK — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 57% versus Landskrona BoIS 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 57% | Landskrona BoIS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.74 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 1.110 / defence 0.967 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.049 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.051. Data: built from Skövde AIK's last 31 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 53% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 23%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 1.88 | Draw 4.23 | Landskrona BoIS 4.32. Skövde AIK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Skövde AIK at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Skövde AIK's last 10 home games and Landskrona BoIS's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Skövde AIK 40% (last 10 home games) | Landskrona BoIS 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Skövde AIK 31 games, Landskrona BoIS 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, matchday 2 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 53% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Skövde AIK 1.74 / Landskrona BoIS 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 1.110 / def 0.967 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.049 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Landskrona BoIS xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS FAQs
What time does Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Skövde AIK 0 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Superettan fixture (matchday 2) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 53% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Skövde AIK's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (1.05x) against Skövde AIK's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Skövde AIK's last 31 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.23
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.81
1.07
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
18%
5.71
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
4%
24.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.07 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Skövde AIK have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 19W 18D 23L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 22W 17D 21L from 60 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Skövde AIK against 1.38 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Skövde AIK have posted 1.63 PPG from their last 30 home games (13W 10D 7L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 8W 8D 14L from their last 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Skövde AIK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.33 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Skövde AIK (Home) vs Landskrona BoIS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Skövde AIK
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS Form FAQs
What form are Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 17D 21L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Skövde AIK's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.63 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 4 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Landskrona BoIS won Landskrona BoIS 4-1 Skövde AIK on 4 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Skövde AIK have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Skövde AIK
1
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Skövde AIK have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 October 2024: Landskrona BoIS 4-1 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS?
Skövde AIK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 53%, Landskrona BoIS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Skövde AIK) and 57% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Skövde AIK vs Landskrona BoIS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 67% of Landskrona BoIS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Skövde AIK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK and Landskrona BoIS finished level at 0-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.74 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.07 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Skövde AIK fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.05 / defence 1.11, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 53% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 23%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 57%, Landskrona BoIS 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Skövde AIK 1.25 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.