Ostersunds FK 1-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ostersunds FK face Trelleborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Trelleborg travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK in Superettan (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ostersunds FK stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Ostersunds FK have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trelleborg — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Trelleborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ostersunds FK 1.50 PPG, Trelleborg 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Ostersunds FK's last 10 home games and Trelleborg's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Ostersunds FK, 1 for Trelleborg and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Ostersunds FK 2–2 Trelleborg — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ostersunds FK 58% and Trelleborg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 43% | Trelleborg 63%). Note also that Trelleborg surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Ostersunds FK recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.54 xG and Trelleborg 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.078 / defence 1.039 | Trelleborg attack 1.027 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.183. Data: built from Ostersunds FK's last 31 games and Trelleborg's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 44% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 31%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.28 | Draw 4.00 | Trelleborg 3.21. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ostersunds FK's last 10 home games and Trelleborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ostersunds FK 80% (last 10 home games) | Trelleborg 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Ostersunds FK 31 games, Trelleborg 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, matchday 2 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 44% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Ostersunds FK 1.54 / Trelleborg 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.078 / def 1.039 | Trelleborg attack 1.027 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Trelleborg xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg FAQs
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg is a Superettan fixture (matchday 2) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 44% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 1.08x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ostersunds FK's last 31 games and Trelleborg's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
44%
2.28
25%
4.00
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.80
1.26
Trelleborg xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.26 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 22D 20L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.40 PPG from 60 outings (23W 15D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.27 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 12W 11D 7L across their last 30 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 30 away games (10W 9D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.43 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 63%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
Ostersunds FK (Home) vs Trelleborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg Form FAQs
What form are Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 22D 20L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Trelleborg away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.57 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was on 1 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ostersunds FK have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Ostersunds FK have won 4, Trelleborg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2025: Ostersunds FK 2-0 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ostersunds FK at 63%, Trelleborg at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ostersunds FK) and 60% (Trelleborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Ostersunds FK's games and 70% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 60% of Trelleborg's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 70% of Trelleborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out Trelleborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Trelleborg 1-0 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.54 xG and Trelleborg 1.26 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trelleborg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Trelleborg attack 1.03 / defence 0.99, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 44% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 31%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 43%, Trelleborg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.27 PPG, Trelleborg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.