Sandviken 1-0 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sandviken face Osters IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sandviken welcome Osters IF to Arena Jernvallen in Superettan (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 2 matches, Sandviken stand at 1W 0D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Osters IF — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osters IF's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sandviken 1.50 PPG, Osters IF 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.22 xG and Osters IF 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 0.943 / defence 1.152 | Osters IF attack 1.194 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 0.942. Data: built from Sandviken's last 3 games and Osters IF's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sandviken 34% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 37%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 2.95 | Draw 3.47 | Osters IF 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Sandviken's last 2 games and Osters IF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's sample (Sandviken 3 games, Osters IF 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, matchday 4 | Venue: Arena Jernvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 34% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Sandviken 1.22 / Osters IF 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 0.943 / def 1.152 | Osters IF attack 1.194 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.340 / away 0.942 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Osters IF xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sandviken vs Osters IF FAQs
What time does Sandviken vs Osters IF kick off?
Sandviken vs Osters IF kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Arena Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Osters IF?
Sandviken 1 - 0 Osters IF.
Where is Sandviken vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Arena Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Osters IF part of?
Sandviken vs Osters IF is a Superettan fixture (matchday 4) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 34% chance of winning, Osters IF a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sandviken and Osters IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sandviken vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sandviken's attack rating (0.94) and Osters IF's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus Sandviken's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sandviken's last 3 games and Osters IF's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
34%
2.95
29%
3.47
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.52
1.30
Osters IF xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sandviken vs Osters IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.30 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Sandviken have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — L-W across the most recent five.
Osters IF's form line: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W.
Put side by side, Osters IF are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sandviken.
The Goals Picture
Sandviken are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 3.00 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Pre-Season
Osters IF
Early Season
Sandviken (Home) vs Osters IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sandviken
Pre-Season
Osters IF
Early Season
❓ Sandviken vs Osters IF Form FAQs
What form are Sandviken and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Sandviken or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandviken have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Osters IF in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sandviken's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sandviken
2
Draws
1
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Sandviken vs Osters IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Osters IF?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sandviken have won 1, Osters IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Osters IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Sandviken 1-1 Osters IF.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sandviken vs Osters IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sandviken and Osters IF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sandviken's recent matches and 50% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sandviken and Osters IF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sandviken's matches and 100% of Osters IF's.
Do Sandviken and Osters IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Sandviken's recent matches and 100% of Osters IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sandviken defy the odds to beat Osters IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Osters IF 1-0 at Arena Jernvallen, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.22 xG and Osters IF 1.30 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osters IF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against Osters IF attack 1.19 / defence 0.97, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 34% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 37%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Sandviken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 50%, Osters IF 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Sandviken winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandviken conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Osters IF managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.