Oddevold 2-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oddevold host Orebro SK at Rimnersvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Oddevold have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Oddevold have posted 2W 5D 3L at Rimnersvallen — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Orebro SK — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orebro SK have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Oddevold) versus 1.60 (Orebro SK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Oddevold register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Orebro SK in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Oddevold, 0 for Orebro SK and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Oddevold in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Oddevold 60% and Orebro SK 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 63% | Orebro SK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.39 xG and Orebro SK 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.895 / defence 1.174 | Orebro SK attack 0.837 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.286. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Oddevold's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Oddevold games / 36 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 40% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 34%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Orebro SK 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oddevold at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oddevold 60% | Orebro SK 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 40% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Oddevold 1.39 / Orebro SK 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.895 / def 1.174 | Orebro SK attack 0.837 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Orebro SK xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Orebro SK kick off?
Oddevold vs Orebro SK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Orebro SK?
Oddevold 2 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is Oddevold vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Orebro SK part of?
Oddevold vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 40% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Oddevold and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Orebro SK?
Record (2 meetings): Oddevold 0W | Draws 2 | Orebro SK 0W.
What form are Oddevold and Orebro SK in?
Oddevold (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oddevold's attack at 0.90x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.84
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.65
1.26
Orebro SK xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.26 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oddevold come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 12D 10L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oddevold on 1.20 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Oddevold's home form reads 4W 7D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 0.73 points per game from 15 outings (2W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Orebro SK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oddevold come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oddevold are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.23 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Orebro SK in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 8W 12D 10L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Orebro SK away?
Oddevold's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.27 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2026, when Oddevold won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oddevold's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Oddevold
4
Draws
0
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Orebro SK?
From 6 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 2, Orebro SK have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Orebro SK 0-0 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Orebro SK?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 60%, Orebro SK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Oddevold) and 53% (Orebro SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oddevold have failed to score in 33% of games; Orebro SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Oddevold's games and 67% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oddevold vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Oddevold's matches and 53% of Orebro SK's.
Do Oddevold and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oddevold edge out Orebro SK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat Orebro SK 2-1 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.39 xG and Orebro SK 1.26 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.90 / defence 1.17 against Orebro SK attack 0.84 / defence 1.20, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 40% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 34%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 63%, Orebro SK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.20 PPG, Orebro SK 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.