Norrby IF 0-2 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 42%, yet in-form Norrby IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Norrby IF vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 12 as Norrby IF welcome Oddevold to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 June 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Norrby IF have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Norrby IF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oddevold stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Oddevold's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Norrby IF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.76 xG and Oddevold 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.988 / defence 1.166 | Oddevold attack 1.132 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.436. Oddevold bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Norrby IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Norrby IF games / 41 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 36% | Draw 22% | Oddevold 42%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.78 | Draw 4.55 | Oddevold 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oddevold as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Norrby IF (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jun 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 36% | Draw 22% | Oddevold 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Norrby IF 1.76 / Oddevold 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.988 / def 1.166 | Oddevold attack 1.132 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Oddevold xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Oddevold kick off?
Norrby IF vs Oddevold kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 14 June 2026.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Oddevold?
Norrby IF 0 - 2 Oddevold.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Oddevold part of?
Norrby IF vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 36% chance of winning, Oddevold a 42% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Norrby IF and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Oddevold?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Norrby IF and Oddevold in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D. Oddevold (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Norrby IF's attack rating (0.99) and Oddevold's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
36%
2.74
22%
4.61
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
3.66
1.90
Oddevold xG
2.74
36%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
15%
6.65
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
5%
18.24
7%
13.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.90 for Oddevold, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Norrby IF come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 1D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D. It's still early in the season for Norrby IF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Oddevold sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Oddevold, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Norrby IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Oddevold — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Norrby IF are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.50 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norrby IF have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Oddevold in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Early Season
Oddevold
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Oddevold in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Norrby IF and Oddevold runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Norrby IF
1
Draws
1
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Oddevold?
From 2 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 0, Oddevold have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Oddevold 0-0 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Oddevold?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Norrby IF's games and 100% of Oddevold's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norrby IF vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Norrby IF's matches and 100% of Oddevold's.
Do Norrby IF and Oddevold tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oddevold cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Norrby IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat Norrby IF 0-2 at , Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.76 xG and Oddevold 1.90 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Norrby IF fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.99 / defence 1.17 against Oddevold attack 1.13 / defence 1.22, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 36% | Draw 22% | Oddevold 42%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 50%, Oddevold 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Oddevold winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Norrby IF managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Oddevold conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.