Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Landskrona BoIS host Orebro SK at Landskrona IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 2 November 2026 at 18:05 UTC.

Form Guide

Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 4W 4D 2L at Landskrona IP — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Orebro SK's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Landskrona BoIS) versus 1.40 (Orebro SK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Landskrona BoIS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Orebro SK in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, Orebro SK 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Orebro SK winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Orebro SK in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Landskrona BoIS 62% and Orebro SK 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 55% | Orebro SK 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.88 xG and Orebro SK 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.062 / defence 0.956 | Orebro SK attack 1.084 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.352. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Landskrona BoIS games / 58 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 48% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 27%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Orebro SK 3.70. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Orebro SK 80% BTTS from recent games.

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