Landskrona BoIS 0-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS and IFK Norrkoping meet at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 28 July 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 4W 4D 2L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IFK Norrkoping (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 1W, IFK Norrkoping 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 58% versus IFK Norrkoping 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 56% | IFK Norrkoping 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.01 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.918 / defence 0.862 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.886 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.416. IFK Norrkoping's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Landskrona BoIS games / 15 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 33% | Draw 31% | IFK Norrkoping 36%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | IFK Norrkoping 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Norrkoping at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Landskrona BoIS 70% | IFK Norrkoping 30%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 33% | Draw 31% | IFK Norrkoping 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.01 / IFK Norrkoping 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.918 / def 0.862 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.886 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.08
IFK Norrkoping xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 28 July 2026 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping?
Landskrona BoIS 0 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 33% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (1 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 0 | IFK Norrkoping 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and IFK Norrkoping in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Landskrona BoIS's attack at 0.92x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.89x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
33%
3.03
31%
3.28
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.09
1.08
IFK Norrkoping xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.08 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 18W 12D 15L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 16W 8D 21L from 45 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.24 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 1.59 PPG from 22 outings (9W 8D 5L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 8W 5D 9L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.31 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 18W 12D 15L in their last 45 games (1.47 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 16W 8D 21L in their last 45 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.59 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 28 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Landskrona BoIS
0
Draws
1
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and IFK Norrkoping?
From 2 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, IFK Norrkoping have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 0-1 IFK Norrkoping.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 64%, IFK Norrkoping 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Landskrona BoIS) and 50% (IFK Norrkoping).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; IFK Norrkoping in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 59% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 50% of IFK Norrkoping's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Norrkoping edge out Landskrona BoIS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Landskrona BoIS 0-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.01 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.08 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.89 / defence 0.73, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 33% | Draw 31% | IFK Norrkoping 36%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 56%, IFK Norrkoping 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.