Landskrona BoIS 2-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 21 as Landskrona BoIS welcome GIF Sundsvall to Landskrona Idrottsplats. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 August 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour GIF Sundsvall — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, GIF Sundsvall 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 54% versus GIF Sundsvall 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 54% | GIF Sundsvall 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.11 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.897 / defence 1.074 | GIF Sundsvall attack 1.062 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.238. Data: 50 Landskrona BoIS games / 50 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 29% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 43%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | GIF Sundsvall 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Landskrona BoIS 60% | GIF Sundsvall 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 29% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.11 / GIF Sundsvall 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.897 / def 1.074 | GIF Sundsvall attack 1.062 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.41
GIF Sundsvall xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 29% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (7 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 3W | Draws 2 | GIF Sundsvall 2W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (0.90) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
29%
3.44
28%
3.61
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.53
1.41
GIF Sundsvall xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
7%
14.10
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.41 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 22W 13D 17L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 20W 12D 20L from 52 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.52 PPG, GIF Sundsvall on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 1.64 PPG from 25 outings (11W 8D 6L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 10W 4D 11L from 25 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.12 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 13D 17L in their last 52 games (1.52 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 20W 12D 20L in their last 52 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.64 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 18 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
3
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall?
From 9 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 52%, GIF Sundsvall 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Landskrona BoIS) and 40% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 32%; GIF Sundsvall in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 36% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 40% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Landskrona BoIS defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat GIF Sundsvall 2-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.11 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.41 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against GIF Sundsvall attack 1.06 / defence 0.87, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 29% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 43%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 54%, GIF Sundsvall 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.52 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.