GIF Sundsvall 1-2 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as GIF Sundsvall face Vasteras SK FK.

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Full Analysis

NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus Vasteras SK FK in Superettan (matchday 7). Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

GIF Sundsvall (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

GIF Sundsvall's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Vasteras SK FK have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Vasteras SK FK's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 2.00 for Vasteras SK FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended GIF Sundsvall 0–2 Vasteras SK FK — a Vasteras SK FK win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Vasteras SK FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 47% versus Vasteras SK FK 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 50% | Vasteras SK FK 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: GIF Sundsvall surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Vasteras SK FK have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.62 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.104 / defence 1.013 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.867 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.286. Data: built from GIF Sundsvall's last 36 games and Vasteras SK FK's last 6.

Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 49% | Draw 25% | Vasteras SK FK 27%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.05 | Draw 4.05 | Vasteras SK FK 3.77. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: GIF Sundsvall 50% (last 10 home games) | Vasteras SK FK 50% (last 10 away games).

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