Sandviken 2-1 Umeå FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sandviken at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs Umeå FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Umeå FC make the trip to Jernvallen to face Sandviken in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Sandviken (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sandviken's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Jernvallen this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sandviken are significantly better at Jernvallen than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.62 xG and Umeå FC 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 0.914 / defence 0.841 | Umeå FC attack 0.621 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.279. Umeå FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Sandviken's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Sandviken games / 6 Umeå FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 60% | Draw 25% | Umeå FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Umeå FC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sandviken (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandviken as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Umeå FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Jernvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 60% | Draw 25% | Umeå FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 39% | xG Sandviken 1.62 / Umeå FC 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 0.914 / def 0.841 | Umeå FC attack 0.621 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Umeå FC xG
39%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Umeå FC kick off?
Sandviken vs Umeå FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Umeå FC?
Sandviken 2 - 1 Umeå FC.
Where is Sandviken vs Umeå FC being played?
The match is being played at Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Umeå FC part of?
Sandviken vs Umeå FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Umeå FC?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 60% chance of winning, Umeå FC a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Umeå FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sandviken and Umeå FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Umeå FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Umeå FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandviken and Umeå FC in?
Sandviken (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Sandviken home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sandviken's attack rating (0.91) and Umeå FC's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Umeå FC's attack (0.62x) against Sandviken's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
60%
1.66
25%
4.08
15%
6.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.29
0.67
Umeå FC xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
6.58
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
3%
33.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 11.0 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Umeå FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Umeå FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Sandviken and 0.67 for Umeå FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Umeå FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Pre-Season
Umeå FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sandviken
0
Draws
0
Umeå FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Umeå FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 2, Umeå FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Umeå FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Umeå FC 1-2 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Umeå FC?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Umeå FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Sandviken edge out Umeå FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Umeå FC 2-1 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.62 xG and Umeå FC 0.67 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.91 / defence 0.84 against Umeå FC attack 0.62 / defence 1.38, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 60% | Draw 25% | Umeå FC 15%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.