GIF Sundsvall 1-3 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Helsingborg at 34% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg encounter.

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Full Analysis

NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus Helsingborg in Superettan (matchday 11). Kick-off: Sunday 2 June 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

GIF Sundsvall (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, GIF Sundsvall have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Helsingborg's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Helsingborg away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for GIF Sundsvall, 1.50 for Helsingborg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from GIF Sundsvall's last 10 home games and Helsingborg's last 10 away games) — GIF Sundsvall have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Helsingborg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head sample leans to Helsingborg, who have 3 wins from 4 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended GIF Sundsvall 2–3 Helsingborg — a Helsingborg win.

Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading Data

GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Helsingborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 57% versus Helsingborg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 60% | Helsingborg 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 0.98 xG and Helsingborg 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.894 / defence 1.043 | Helsingborg attack 0.939 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.004. Data: built from GIF Sundsvall's last 40 games and Helsingborg's last 40.

Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 34% | Draw 31% | Helsingborg 34%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.91 | Draw 3.21 | Helsingborg 2.90. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 34% to win, with the draw at 31%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — GIF Sundsvall 34% and Helsingborg 34%, with the draw at 31%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: GIF Sundsvall 70% (last 10 home games) | Helsingborg 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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