Degerfors IF 3-1 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Utsikten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Utsikten make the trip to Stora Valla to face Degerfors IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 June 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Degerfors IF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 7D 0L. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Degerfors IF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Utsikten's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Utsikten have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Degerfors IF's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Utsikten — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 60% versus Utsikten 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 50% | Utsikten 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.37 xG and Utsikten 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.150 / defence 1.200 | Utsikten attack 1.045 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.002. Data: 10 Degerfors IF games / 40 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 39% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 34%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Utsikten 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Degerfors IF 60% | Utsikten 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jun 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 39% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Degerfors IF 1.37 / Utsikten 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.150 / def 1.200 | Utsikten attack 1.045 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Utsikten xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Utsikten kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Utsikten kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Utsikten?
Degerfors IF 3 - 1 Utsikten.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Utsikten part of?
Degerfors IF vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 39% chance of winning, Utsikten a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Degerfors IF and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Utsikten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Degerfors IF and Utsikten in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Utsikten (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Utsikten's attack (1.04x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.77
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.63
1.26
Utsikten xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.26 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 10D 13L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D. Degerfors IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Utsikten sit at 1.83 PPG from 30 outings (16W 7D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Utsikten carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Degerfors IF's home form reads 5W 6D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Utsikten have taken 1.60 points per game from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.67 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
Utsikten
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 16W 7D 7L in their last 30 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Utsikten away?
Utsikten's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.40 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Utsikten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Utsikten in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
0
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Utsikten?
From 2 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 2, Utsikten have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2024, when Utsikten 0-3 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Utsikten?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Utsikten see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, Utsikten 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Degerfors IF) and 40% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Utsikten in 33%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 40% of games; Utsikten in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Utsikten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 40% of Utsikten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 40% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Utsikten tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Utsikten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Utsikten 3-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.37 xG and Utsikten 1.26 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.15 / defence 1.20 against Utsikten attack 1.04 / defence 0.90, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 39% | Draw 27% | Utsikten 34%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 50%, Utsikten 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Utsikten's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Utsikten arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Degerfors IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Utsikten (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.