GIF Sundsvall 1-2 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Degerfors IF at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's home record at NP3 Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at NP3 Arena this season.
Across all Superettan games this season, Degerfors IF have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Degerfors IF are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Degerfors IF have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against GIF Sundsvall's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Degerfors IF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Degerfors IF have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Degerfors IF trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 44% versus Degerfors IF 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 46% | Degerfors IF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 0.91 xG and Degerfors IF 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.858 / defence 0.979 | Degerfors IF attack 1.143 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.167. Degerfors IF's defence strength of 0.766 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 GIF Sundsvall games / 25 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 25% | Draw 30% | Degerfors IF 45%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Degerfors IF 2.22. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Degerfors IF 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 25% | Draw 30% | Degerfors IF 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG GIF Sundsvall 0.91 / Degerfors IF 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.858 / def 0.979 | Degerfors IF attack 1.143 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Degerfors IF xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 2 Degerfors IF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 25% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Degerfors IF?
Record (3 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 3W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Degerfors IF in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.86x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
25%
3.96
30%
3.37
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.21
1.31
Degerfors IF xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
7%
14.61
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.3 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.31 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 16W 14D 25L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF's form line: 21W 13D 21L from 55 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.13 PPG, Degerfors IF on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (10W 8D 9L).
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 7W 8D 12L from 27 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.36 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 62%.
Last 55 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 16W 14D 25L in their last 55 games (1.13 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 21W 13D 21L in their last 55 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Degerfors IF away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.41 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Degerfors IF go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
4
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Degerfors IF?
From 4 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, Degerfors IF have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 6 October 2024, when GIF Sundsvall 1-2 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 56%, Degerfors IF 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (GIF Sundsvall) and 52% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 59% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 52% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Degerfors IF edge out GIF Sundsvall 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 0.91 xG and Degerfors IF 1.31 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.86 / defence 0.98 against Degerfors IF attack 1.14 / defence 0.77, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 25% | Draw 30% | Degerfors IF 45%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 46%, Degerfors IF 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.13 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.