Degerfors IF 1-2 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Degerfors IF host Orebro SK at Stora Valla in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Degerfors IF have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Stora Valla this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Degerfors IF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Degerfors IF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Orebro SK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Degerfors IF have won 2, Orebro SK 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Orebro SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 62% versus Orebro SK 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 55% | Orebro SK 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.67 xG and Orebro SK 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.081 / defence 0.858 | Orebro SK attack 0.821 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.182. Data: 26 Degerfors IF games / 56 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 56% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 18%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Orebro SK 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Degerfors IF (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Degerfors IF 60% | Orebro SK 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 56% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Degerfors IF 1.67 / Orebro SK 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.081 / def 0.858 | Orebro SK attack 0.821 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Orebro SK xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK?
Degerfors IF 1 - 2 Orebro SK.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK part of?
Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 56% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Degerfors IF and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Orebro SK?
Record (3 meetings): Degerfors IF 2W | Draws 0 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Orebro SK in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (1.08) and Orebro SK's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.82
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.51
0.83
Orebro SK xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
3%
30.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.4 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 0.83 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Degerfors IF come into this having played 56 games, going 22W 13D 21L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.18 PPG from 56 outings (16W 18D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.41 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Degerfors IF's home form reads 14W 5D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 0.57 points per game from 28 outings (3W 7D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Orebro SK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.32 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 22W 13D 21L in their last 56 games (1.41 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 16W 18D 22L in their last 56 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Orebro SK away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.68 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Degerfors IF and Orebro SK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Orebro SK go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2021, when Degerfors IF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
2
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 2, Orebro SK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2024, when Degerfors IF 1-2 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 64%, Orebro SK 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Degerfors IF and 71% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Degerfors IF's games and 61% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Degerfors IF's matches and 71% of Orebro SK's.
Do Degerfors IF and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orebro SK defy the odds to beat Degerfors IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Degerfors IF 1-2 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.67 xG and Orebro SK 0.83 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Orebro SK outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.08 / defence 0.86 against Orebro SK attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 56% | Draw 26% | Orebro SK 18%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Orebro SK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 55%, Orebro SK 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.41 PPG, Orebro SK 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.