Akropolis 0-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Akropolis at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akropolis vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Akropolis host Orgryte IS at Grimsta IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 May 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akropolis 1.52 xG and Orgryte IS 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akropolis attack 0.935 / defence 1.188 | Orgryte IS attack 0.989 / defence 1.649. League average goals — home 0.989 / away 0.851. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.649 — this is suppressing Akropolis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Akropolis games / 5 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akropolis 46% | Draw 32% | Orgryte IS 22%. Fair-value odds: Akropolis 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Orgryte IS 4.55. Akropolis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Akropolis at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Akropolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akropolis vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akropolis 46% | Draw 32% | Orgryte IS 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Akropolis 1.52 / Orgryte IS 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Akropolis attack 0.935 / def 1.188 | Orgryte IS attack 0.989 / def 1.649 | league avg home 0.989 / away 0.851 • Poisson stance: Akropolis (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Akropolis xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Orgryte IS xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akropolis vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Akropolis vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 May 2021 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in Akropolis vs Orgryte IS?
Akropolis 0 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Akropolis vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is Akropolis vs Orgryte IS part of?
Akropolis vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Akropolis vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Akropolis a 46% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Akropolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akropolis vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Akropolis and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Akropolis vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Akropolis and Orgryte IS in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Akropolis's attack rating (0.94) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (1.65), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Akropolis's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akropolis Win
46%
2.17
32%
3.09
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Akropolis xG
Total xG
2.52
1.00
Orgryte IS xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
5%
21.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akropolis vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Akropolis and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Akropolis and 1.00 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Akropolis vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akropolis
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Akropolis
0
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and Orgryte IS?
From 2 meetings on record, Akropolis have won 0, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Akropolis and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2021, when Orgryte IS 3-1 Akropolis.
Who has won more matches between Akropolis and Orgryte IS?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akropolis home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Orgryte IS defy the odds to beat Akropolis 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Akropolis 0-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akropolis 1.52 xG and Orgryte IS 1.00 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Akropolis fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akropolis attack 0.94 / defence 1.19 against Orgryte IS attack 0.99 / defence 1.65, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akropolis 46% | Draw 32% | Orgryte IS 22%, with Akropolis to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Orgryte IS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.