Vasteras SK FK 1-0 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna meet at Hitachi Energy Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Vasteras SK FK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 5W 2D 3L at Hitachi Energy Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hitachi Energy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
IF Brommapojkarna have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Vasteras SK FK, 1.60 for IF Brommapojkarna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 3 for IF Brommapojkarna and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Vasteras SK FK half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 46% versus IF Brommapojkarna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 61% | IF Brommapojkarna 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.65 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.858 / defence 0.887 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.354 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.326. IF Brommapojkarna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing Vasteras SK FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. IF Brommapojkarna have an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Vasteras SK FK games / 56 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 40% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 37%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Vasteras SK FK 30% | IF Brommapojkarna 70%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 40% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.65 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.858 / def 0.887 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.354 / def 1.409 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.59
IF Brommapojkarna xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Vasteras SK FK 1 - 0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 40% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (5 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 1W | Draws 1 | IF Brommapojkarna 3W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — IF Brommapojkarna's attack (1.35x) against Vasteras SK FK's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
40%
2.53
23%
4.27
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
3.25
1.59
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
8%
12.43
7%
14.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.59 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 56 games, going 32W 10D 14L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IF Brommapojkarna sit at 1.16 PPG from 56 outings (18W 11D 27L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of IF Brommapojkarna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 16W 8D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Brommapojkarna have taken 1.32 points per game from 28 outings (10W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.41 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 32W 10D 14L in their last 56 games (1.89 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 18W 11D 27L in their last 56 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 2.00 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or IF Brommapojkarna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, IF Brommapojkarna in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Vasteras SK FK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasteras SK FK have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against IF Brommapojkarna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
3
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 6 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, IF Brommapojkarna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 1-0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 43%, IF Brommapojkarna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vasteras SK FK) and 64% (IF Brommapojkarna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play IF Brommapojkarna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 57% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 64% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vasteras SK FK edge out IF Brommapojkarna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-0 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.65 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.59 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IF Brommapojkarna landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.86 / defence 0.89 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.35 / defence 1.41, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 40% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 37%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 61%, IF Brommapojkarna 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.