Sirius 1-3 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sirius (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sirius face Degerfors IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 21 September 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sirius have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Sirius's 1.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Degerfors IF's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sirius have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Degerfors IF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 7 previous meetings, Sirius are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Sirius a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 64% and Degerfors IF 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 62% | Degerfors IF 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 2.41 xG and Degerfors IF 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.140 / defence 0.850 | Degerfors IF attack 0.880 / defence 1.495. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.354. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.495 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Sirius games / 23 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 68% | Draw 18% | Degerfors IF 14%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Degerfors IF 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Sirius (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 60% | Degerfors IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 68% | Draw 18% | Degerfors IF 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 58% | xG Sirius 2.41 / Degerfors IF 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.140 / def 0.850 | Degerfors IF attack 0.880 / def 1.495 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Sirius (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Degerfors IF xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Sirius vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Sirius 1 - 3 Degerfors IF.
Where is Sirius vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Degerfors IF part of?
Sirius vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 68% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sirius and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Degerfors IF?
Record (7 meetings): Sirius 5W | Draws 2 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Sirius and Degerfors IF in?
Sirius (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sirius's attack rating (1.14) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 2.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.88x) against Sirius's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.61
14%
7.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.43
1.01
Degerfors IF xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.61
18%
Draw
7.14
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
9%
11.18
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
1%
79.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Sirius and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Sirius and 1.01 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 53 games, going 19W 10D 24L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.34 PPG from 53 outings (19W 14D 20L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Sirius against 1.34 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 10W 5D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 1.35 points per game from 26 outings (9W 8D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.34 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 19W 10D 24L in their last 53 games (1.26 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 19W 14D 20L in their last 53 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Degerfors IF away?
Sirius's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.35 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 0-3 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Sirius
2
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Sirius have won 6, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Degerfors IF?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 54%, Degerfors IF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sirius) and 54% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sirius's games and 62% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sirius's matches and 54% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Sirius and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Sirius 1-3 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 2.41 xG and Degerfors IF 1.01 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sirius fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Degerfors IF outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against Degerfors IF attack 0.88 / defence 1.50, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 68% | Draw 18% | Degerfors IF 14%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Degerfors IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 62%, Degerfors IF 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.26 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.